KCChiefs
4-2
44
TBD
Levi's Stadium
70°F
023
SF49ers
3-3
TBD
Levi's Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
7
14
14
42
49ers
10
3
3
7
23
Spread
+0
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
529
444
Total Plays
58
72
Yards / Play
9.1
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.51
+0.07
Passing Yards
417
343
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
29/46(63%)
Yards / Pass
11.6
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.78
+0.05
Rushing Yards
112
101
Rush Attempts
21
21
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.25
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
25
Passing 1st downs
19
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
67%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
80%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-3.61
-9.48
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-6
-26
Sack EPA
-1.39
-10.31
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
84
80
Penalty EPA
-9.00
-11.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model49.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+27
Home nfelo
1,588
Away nfelo
1,620
Home Field
+46.3
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+13.7
Home QB Adjustment
+19.1
Away QB Adjustment
+5.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
5.6
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+19.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
1
Yards / Game
1
2
Passing Yards / Game
12
19
Rushing Yards / Game
20
2
EPA
EPA / Play
1
1
EPA / Pass
1
2
EPA / Rush
6
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
27
Interceptions / Game
7
2
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
27
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
13
4th Down Efficiency
2
16
RZ Efficiency
2
20
49ers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
18
Yards / Game
6
14
Passing Yards / Game
27
28
Rushing Yards / Game
7
8
EPA
EPA / Play
6
27
EPA / Pass
2
15
EPA / Rush
23
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
30
Interceptions / Game
3
21
Fumbles / Game
26
2
Turnover EPA / Game
31
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
22
4th Down Efficiency
29
24
RZ Efficiency
19
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
49ers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U