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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ bears week 2, 2007

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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KC logo
KCChiefs
0-1
10
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
11 mph
20
CHIBears
0-1
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
7
3
0
10
Bears
0
11
3
0
14

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
281
239
Total Plays
60
66
Yards / Play
4.7
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.43
-0.24
Passing Yards
211
132
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
20/34(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
3.9
EPA / Pass
-0.12
-0.58
Rushing Yards
70
107
Rush Attempts
24
29
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
13
18
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
31%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.70
-13.71
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-19
-28
Sack EPA
-2.70
-5.79
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
60
55
Penalty EPA
-6.20
-3.43

Preview data is limited for games before 2009

Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A

Win Probability

MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Bears Defense
Chiefs logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
31
17
Yards / Game
31
28
Passing Yards / Game
12
30
Rushing Yards / Game
32
24

EPA

EPA / Play
30
5
EPA / Pass
28
14
EPA / Rush
29
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
9
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
15
1
Turnover EPA / Game
13
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
2
4th Down Efficiency
3
29
RZ Efficiency
23
14
Bears Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Bears logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
18
15
Yards / Game
27
12
Passing Yards / Game
6
22
Rushing Yards / Game
30
28

EPA

EPA / Play
26
14
EPA / Pass
26
10
EPA / Rush
30
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
1
Interceptions / Game
28
24
Fumbles / Game
15
18
Turnover EPA / Game
15
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
1
4th Down Efficiency
18
1
RZ Efficiency
27
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
-3
L
L
P
11/19
4
W
L
P
11/23
9
W
W
P
12/03
-3
L
L
P
12/10
-10
L
L
P
12/17
-11
L
L
P
12/23
11
W
W
P
12/31
5
W
W
P
01/06
-15
L
L
P
09/09
-17
L
L
P
CHI logo

Bears

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
-4
L
W
P
12/03
10
W
W
P
12/11
15
W
W
P
12/17
3
W
L
P
12/24
5
W
L
P
12/31
-19
L
L
P
01/14
3
W
L
P
01/21
25
W
W
P
02/04
-12
L
L
P
09/09
-11
L
L
P