KCChiefs
1-2
21
TBD
Paycor Stadium
68°F
5 mph
36
CINBengals
3-0
TBD
Paycor Stadium
68°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
9
3
6
21
Bengals
14
0
15
7
36
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
461
447
Total Plays
73
51
Yards / Play
6.3
8.8
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.42
Passing Yards
348
--
Comp/Att
31/45(69%)
17/24(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.80
Rushing Yards
113
126
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
44%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.13
--
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-38
--
Sack EPA
-7.31
--
Penalties
7
11
Penalty Yards
46
84
Penalty EPA
-5.28
-9.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+119
Home nfelo
1,551
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+25.3
Home QB Adjustment
+17.9
Away QB Adjustment
-7.4
Market Regression
-16.5
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+17.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
2
Yards / Game
25
13
Passing Yards / Game
19
24
Rushing Yards / Game
6
7
EPA
EPA / Play
5
7
EPA / Pass
15
5
EPA / Rush
1
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
23
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
7
27
Turnover EPA / Game
30
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
14
4th Down Efficiency
2
16
RZ Efficiency
12
4
Bengals Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
1
Yards / Game
16
6
Passing Yards / Game
30
7
Rushing Yards / Game
13
6
EPA
EPA / Play
6
5
EPA / Pass
2
3
EPA / Rush
23
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
8
Interceptions / Game
6
2
Fumbles / Game
25
23
Turnover EPA / Game
25
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
5
4th Down Efficiency
4
15
RZ Efficiency
5
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U