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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ bengals week 16, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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KC logo
KCChiefs
3-11
10
TBD
Paycor Stadium
41°F
14 mph
17
CINBengals
9-5
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
41°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
3
0
7
10
Bengals
0
3
7
7
17

Spread

KC logo
+13.5

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
295
274
Total Plays
66
62
Yards / Play
4.5
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.05
Passing Yards
172
130
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.08
Rushing Yards
123
144
Rush Attempts
28
36
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
47%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.03
-3.30
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-9
Sack EPA
-2.00
-1.58
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
40
36
Penalty EPA
-4.12
-5.90

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-14.5
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5

Win Probability

Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+344
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,268
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+0.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.4
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
-26.2
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5

Quarterbacks

M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
Value
Ptile
10/11
1.6
60
10/18
-5.6
16
10/25
-13.5
1
11/08
0.4
53
11/15
-4.2
23
11/22
-1.1
43
11/29
-0.1
48
12/06
-10.8
2
12/13
-9.0
4
12/20
5.1
83
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Value
Ptile
10/11
1.9
63
10/18
1.2
57
10/25
11.6
98
11/08
2.5
66
11/15
-2.0
38
11/22
0.8
55
11/29
-4.3
23
12/06
-5.9
15
12/13
-1.8
39
12/20
3.7
73

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Bengals Defense
Chiefs logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
23
5
Yards / Game
25
5
Passing Yards / Game
20
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
8

EPA

EPA / Play
26
7
EPA / Pass
26
10
EPA / Rush
26
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
22
Interceptions / Game
18
11
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
18
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
13
4th Down Efficiency
17
12
RZ Efficiency
23
9
Bengals Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Bengals logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
22
29
Yards / Game
24
30
Passing Yards / Game
21
8
Rushing Yards / Game
7
30

EPA

EPA / Play
19
25
EPA / Pass
16
18
EPA / Rush
12
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
5
Interceptions / Game
8
16
Fumbles / Game
21
7
Turnover EPA / Game
17
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
14
4th Down Efficiency
4
24
RZ Efficiency
21
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
-6
L
W
O
10/18
8
W
W
U
10/25
-30
L
L
P
11/08
-3
L
W
O
11/15
6
W
W
U
11/22
3
W
W
O
11/29
-29
L
L
O
12/06
-31
L
L
O
12/13
-6
L
L
U
12/20
-7
L
L
O
CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
3
W
W
U
10/18
-11
L
L
U
10/25
35
W
W
O
11/08
10
W
W
U
11/15
6
W
W
U
11/22
-3
L
L
O
11/29
9
W
L
U
12/06
10
W
L
U
12/13
-20
L
L
U
12/20
-3
L
W
O