KCChiefs
3-11
10
TBD
Paycor Stadium
41°F
14 mph
17
CINBengals
9-5
TBD
Paycor Stadium
41°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
3
0
7
10
Bengals
0
3
7
7
17
Spread
+13.5
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
295
274
Total Plays
66
62
Yards / Play
4.5
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.05
Passing Yards
172
130
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.08
Rushing Yards
123
144
Rush Attempts
28
36
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
47%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.03
-3.30
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-9
Sack EPA
-2.00
-1.58
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
40
36
Penalty EPA
-4.12
-5.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-14.5
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+344
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,268
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+0.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.4
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
-26.2
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
5
Yards / Game
25
5
Passing Yards / Game
20
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
8
EPA
EPA / Play
26
7
EPA / Pass
26
10
EPA / Rush
26
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
22
Interceptions / Game
18
11
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
18
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
13
4th Down Efficiency
17
12
RZ Efficiency
23
9
Bengals Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
29
Yards / Game
24
30
Passing Yards / Game
21
8
Rushing Yards / Game
7
30
EPA
EPA / Play
19
25
EPA / Pass
16
18
EPA / Rush
12
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
5
Interceptions / Game
8
16
Fumbles / Game
21
7
Turnover EPA / Game
17
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
14
4th Down Efficiency
4
24
RZ Efficiency
21
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U