KCChiefs
5-3
21
TBD
New Era Field
54°F
6 mph
28
BUFBills
5-2
TBD
New Era Field
54°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
13
0
8
21
Bills
7
14
7
0
28
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
307
404
Total Plays
58
64
Yards / Play
5.3
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.19
Passing Yards
228
263
Comp/Att
15/35(43%)
23/26(88%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
10.1
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.37
Rushing Yards
79
141
Rush Attempts
20
35
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.19
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
23%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-0.98
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-24
-10
Sack EPA
-4.98
-4.56
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
25
40
Penalty EPA
-4.45
-3.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-12
Home nfelo
1,611
Away nfelo
1,643
Home Field
+49.0
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
-7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-29.6
Home QB Adjustment
-3.4
Away QB Adjustment
+26.2
Market Regression
-21.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+26.2
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+3.4
Team Elo Adj
-3.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
14
Yards / Game
7
13
Passing Yards / Game
6
3
Rushing Yards / Game
16
31
EPA
EPA / Play
4
25
EPA / Pass
6
8
EPA / Rush
3
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
20
Interceptions / Game
10
14
Fumbles / Game
1
5
Turnover EPA / Game
26
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
18
4th Down Efficiency
3
23
RZ Efficiency
7
12
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
4
Yards / Game
2
7
Passing Yards / Game
10
26
Rushing Yards / Game
1
9
EPA
EPA / Play
2
17
EPA / Pass
4
12
EPA / Rush
2
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
20
Interceptions / Game
16
18
Fumbles / Game
10
25
Turnover EPA / Game
22
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
23
4th Down Efficiency
20
1
RZ Efficiency
5
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U