KCChiefs
9-0
21
TBD
New Era Field
50°F
3 mph
30
BUFBills
8-2
TBD
New Era Field
50°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
14
0
7
21
Bills
6
10
0
14
30
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
259
366
Total Plays
52
71
Yards / Play
5.0
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.17
Passing Yards
181
--
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.15
Rushing Yards
78
104
Rush Attempts
17
31
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
24
Passing 1st downs
15
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.62
-4.41
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-3.45
--
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
57
24
Penalty EPA
-8.54
+2.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+37
Home nfelo
1,641
Away nfelo
1,660
Home Field
+48.5
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.5
Time Adj
-7.4
Net QB Adjustment
+7.3
Home QB Adjustment
-2.9
Away QB Adjustment
-10.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
12
Yards / Game
19
16
Passing Yards / Game
19
24
Rushing Yards / Game
26
13
EPA
EPA / Play
10
14
EPA / Pass
10
23
EPA / Rush
12
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
32
Interceptions / Game
14
10
Fumbles / Game
5
2
Turnover EPA / Game
22
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
30
4th Down Efficiency
6
14
RZ Efficiency
21
17
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
6
Yards / Game
10
9
Passing Yards / Game
32
17
Rushing Yards / Game
9
10
EPA
EPA / Play
2
16
EPA / Pass
3
25
EPA / Rush
3
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
15
Interceptions / Game
2
17
Fumbles / Game
1
26
Turnover EPA / Game
32
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
24
4th Down Efficiency
2
9
RZ Efficiency
2
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
10-0
SU
5-5
ATS
3-5-2
O/U
Bills
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U