KCChiefs
3-0
27
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
65°F
5 mph
23
DENBroncos
2-1
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
65°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
7
3
14
27
Broncos
3
10
7
3
23
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
446
385
Total Plays
72
59
Yards / Play
6.2
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.08
Passing Yards
304
226
Comp/Att
28/45(62%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.16
Rushing Yards
142
159
Rush Attempts
26
22
Yards / Rush
5.5
7.2
EPA / Rush
+0.36
+0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
47%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.91
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
--
-19
Sack EPA
-0.61
-4.92
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
93
--
Penalty EPA
-9.72
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-77
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,568
Home Field
+41.2
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+3.3
Home QB Adjustment
+14.5
Away QB Adjustment
+11.2
Market Regression
+28.2
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
12
Yards / Game
1
22
Passing Yards / Game
7
28
Rushing Yards / Game
15
22
EPA
EPA / Play
1
10
EPA / Pass
1
17
EPA / Rush
1
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
23
Interceptions / Game
10
3
Fumbles / Game
12
15
Turnover EPA / Game
29
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
17
4th Down Efficiency
4
13
RZ Efficiency
1
14
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
24
Yards / Game
19
31
Passing Yards / Game
14
30
Rushing Yards / Game
11
27
EPA
EPA / Play
22
25
EPA / Pass
26
16
EPA / Rush
8
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
28
Interceptions / Game
23
9
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
21
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
26
4th Down Efficiency
10
28
RZ Efficiency
18
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Broncos
4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
3-7
O/U