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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ broncos week 10, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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KC logo
KCChiefs
5-3
29
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
43°F
6 mph
49
DENBroncos
2-6
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
43°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
10
7
12
29
Broncos
21
8
7
7
43

Spread

DEN logo
+1

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
484
452
Total Plays
81
66
Yards / Play
6.0
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.34
Passing Yards
433
--
Comp/Att
33/55(60%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.61
Rushing Yards
51
153
Rush Attempts
22
31
Yards / Rush
2.3
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.24
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
30
25
Passing 1st downs
24
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
38%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
5
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.15
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-36
--
Sack EPA
-14.41
--
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
40
--
Penalty EPA
-2.22
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model51.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+13
Home nfelo
1,408
Away nfelo
1,464
Home Field
+63.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+5.5
Home QB Adjustment
+14.8
Away QB Adjustment
+9.3
Market Regression
-10.0
Final Difference
-10.0
Model Spread
+0.5

Quarterbacks

M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
Value
Ptile
12/27
-1.6
40
01/03
-1.4
40
09/13
-4.2
22
09/19
-5.7
14
09/26
4.6
80
10/10
-3.2
27
10/17
4.5
79
10/24
1.9
60
10/31
-2.9
30
11/07
-0.2
48
K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+14.8
Value
Ptile
12/27
1.8
62
01/03
0.1
50
09/12
-0.2
48
09/19
6.0
87
09/26
8.5
94
10/03
1.9
60
10/10
6.6
89
10/17
-0.2
48
10/24
-4.1
24
10/31
3.4
71

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
18
32
Yards / Game
16
32
Passing Yards / Game
31
4
Rushing Yards / Game
1
31

EPA

EPA / Play
16
31
EPA / Pass
13
30
EPA / Rush
7
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
10
Interceptions / Game
4
31
Fumbles / Game
15
22
Turnover EPA / Game
31
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
16
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
7
26
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
19
14
Yards / Game
11
16
Passing Yards / Game
5
22
Rushing Yards / Game
26
16

EPA

EPA / Play
17
18
EPA / Pass
12
17
EPA / Rush
30
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
20
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
26
30
Turnover EPA / Game
16
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
18
4th Down Efficiency
30
6
RZ Efficiency
13
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
-7
L
W
U
01/03
20
W
W
O
09/13
7
W
W
U
09/19
2
W
W
U
09/26
21
W
W
O
10/10
-10
L
L
U
10/17
-4
L
W
O
10/24
22
W
W
O
10/31
3
W
L
U
11/07
-3
L
L
O
DEN logo

Broncos

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
-3
L
W
O
01/03
-20
L
L
O
09/12
-7
L
L
U
09/19
17
W
W
O
09/26
-14
L
L
U
10/03
6
W
W
O
10/10
-14
L
L
O
10/17
-4
L
L
O
10/24
-45
L
L
O
10/31
-8
L
L
U