KCChiefs
5-3
29
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
43°F
6 mph
49
DENBroncos
2-6
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
43°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
10
7
12
29
Broncos
21
8
7
7
43
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
484
452
Total Plays
81
66
Yards / Play
6.0
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.34
Passing Yards
433
--
Comp/Att
33/55(60%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.61
Rushing Yards
51
153
Rush Attempts
22
31
Yards / Rush
2.3
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.24
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
25
Passing 1st downs
24
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
38%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
5
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.15
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-36
--
Sack EPA
-14.41
--
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
40
--
Penalty EPA
-2.22
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model51.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+12
Home nfelo
1,408
Away nfelo
1,465
Home Field
+63.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+5.5
Home QB Adjustment
+14.8
Away QB Adjustment
+9.3
Market Regression
-10.2
Final Difference
-10.2
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+14.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
32
Yards / Game
16
32
Passing Yards / Game
31
4
Rushing Yards / Game
1
31
EPA
EPA / Play
16
31
EPA / Pass
13
30
EPA / Rush
7
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
10
Interceptions / Game
4
31
Fumbles / Game
15
22
Turnover EPA / Game
31
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
16
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
7
26
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
14
Yards / Game
11
16
Passing Yards / Game
5
22
Rushing Yards / Game
26
16
EPA
EPA / Play
17
18
EPA / Pass
12
17
EPA / Rush
30
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
20
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
26
30
Turnover EPA / Game
16
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
18
4th Down Efficiency
30
6
RZ Efficiency
13
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Broncos
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U