KCChiefs
3-5
29
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
64°F
5 mph
13
DENBroncos
7-1
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
64°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
10
9
3
7
29
Broncos
0
0
0
13
13
Spread
+4
Total
PUSH
42
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
303
221
Total Plays
65
66
Yards / Play
4.7
3.3
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.29
Passing Yards
197
152
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
19/44(43%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
3.5
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.50
Rushing Yards
106
69
Rush Attempts
32
17
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
18
Passing 1st downs
4
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
25%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
5
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-17.64
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-7
-29
Sack EPA
-3.31
-7.04
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
102
55
Penalty EPA
-9.59
-13.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+44
Home nfelo
1,622
Away nfelo
1,550
Home Field
-3.1
Base HFA
+62.3
Divisional Adj
-28.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.5
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-24.9
Home QB Adjustment
-18.7
Away QB Adjustment
+6.2
Market Regression
+5.0
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-18.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
4
Yards / Game
25
2
Passing Yards / Game
19
12
Rushing Yards / Game
6
1
EPA
EPA / Play
5
1
EPA / Pass
15
1
EPA / Rush
1
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
12
Interceptions / Game
1
13
Fumbles / Game
7
7
Turnover EPA / Game
30
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
2
4th Down Efficiency
2
8
RZ Efficiency
12
17
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
1
Yards / Game
21
6
Passing Yards / Game
21
7
Rushing Yards / Game
17
6
EPA
EPA / Play
26
5
EPA / Pass
27
3
EPA / Rush
27
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
8
Interceptions / Game
30
2
Fumbles / Game
19
23
Turnover EPA / Game
10
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
5
4th Down Efficiency
22
15
RZ Efficiency
28
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Broncos
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U