KCChiefs
9-0
17
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
43°F
6 mph
27
DENBroncos
8-1
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
43°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
10
0
7
17
Broncos
10
7
7
3
27
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
427
Total Plays
73
76
Yards / Play
4.7
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.07
Passing Yards
200
--
Comp/Att
21/45(47%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.33
Rushing Yards
144
104
Rush Attempts
25
36
Yards / Rush
5.8
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
24
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
31%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.00
-5.40
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-30
--
Sack EPA
-4.86
--
Penalties
9
13
Penalty Yards
53
82
Penalty EPA
-4.63
-9.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+177
Home nfelo
1,669
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
-3.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+22.1
Home QB Adjustment
+29.4
Away QB Adjustment
+7.3
Market Regression
-37.2
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+29.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
22
Yards / Game
12
18
Passing Yards / Game
23
23
Rushing Yards / Game
10
5
EPA
EPA / Play
9
23
EPA / Pass
17
23
EPA / Rush
7
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
32
Interceptions / Game
1
18
Fumbles / Game
28
8
Turnover EPA / Game
32
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
19
4th Down Efficiency
27
4
RZ Efficiency
6
25
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
7
Yards / Game
1
25
Passing Yards / Game
24
6
Rushing Yards / Game
16
22
EPA
EPA / Play
1
5
EPA / Pass
1
9
EPA / Rush
19
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
19
Interceptions / Game
7
3
Fumbles / Game
25
3
Turnover EPA / Game
15
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
8
4th Down Efficiency
4
20
RZ Efficiency
2
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Broncos
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
9-1
O/U