KCChiefs
7-3
30
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
44°F
21 mph
27
DENBroncos
7-3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
44°F
21 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chiefs
0
7
7
8
6
28
Broncos
0
3
7
14
3
27
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
275
464
Total Plays
77
77
Yards / Play
3.6
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.11
Passing Yards
192
340
Comp/Att
26/45(58%)
20/34(59%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
10.0
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.52
Rushing Yards
83
124
Rush Attempts
26
38
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
21
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
29%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
17
20
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+4.80
--
Sacks
6
5
Sack Yards
-30
-28
Sack EPA
-6.25
-6.51
Penalties
9
15
Penalty Yards
71
97
Penalty EPA
-8.34
-7.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+55
Home nfelo
1,588
Away nfelo
1,583
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-8.3
Home QB Adjustment
-5.9
Away QB Adjustment
+2.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
3
Yards / Game
21
4
Passing Yards / Game
21
5
Rushing Yards / Game
19
28
EPA
EPA / Play
12
1
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
12
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
9
Interceptions / Game
8
14
Fumbles / Game
23
2
Turnover EPA / Game
22
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
5
4th Down Efficiency
4
8
RZ Efficiency
28
9
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
6
Yards / Game
27
23
Passing Yards / Game
19
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
27
EPA
EPA / Play
25
9
EPA / Pass
23
7
EPA / Rush
30
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
23
Interceptions / Game
12
3
Fumbles / Game
31
1
Turnover EPA / Game
18
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
28
4th Down Efficiency
11
15
RZ Efficiency
27
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Broncos
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U