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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ broncos week 12, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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KC logo
KCChiefs
7-3
30
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
44°F
21 mph
27
DENBroncos
7-3
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
44°F
21 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chiefs
0
7
7
8
6
28
Broncos
0
3
7
14
3
27

Spread

KC logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
275
464
Total Plays
77
77
Yards / Play
3.6
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.11
Passing Yards
192
340
Comp/Att
26/45(58%)
20/34(59%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
10.0
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.52
Rushing Yards
83
124
Rush Attempts
26
38
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
23
21
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
29%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
17
20
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+4.80
--
Sacks
6
5
Sack Yards
-30
-28
Sack EPA
-6.25
-6.51
Penalties
9
15
Penalty Yards
71
97
Penalty EPA
-8.34
-7.26

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+55
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,580
Home Field
+59.1
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
-26.3
Home Bye Adj
+16.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-8.3
Home QB Adjustment
-5.9
Away QB Adjustment
+2.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Value
Ptile
01/16
2.8
71
09/11
6.7
89
09/18
-5.5
13
09/25
1.7
61
10/02
-1.9
34
10/16
0.2
50
10/23
2.3
67
10/30
-3.8
21
11/13
-5.1
15
11/20
5.0
83
T. Siemian headshot

T. Siemian

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
Value
Ptile
09/08
-2.8
27
09/18
-0.6
44
09/25
7.5
91
10/02
-6.4
10
10/13
-1.0
41
10/24
-0.5
45
10/30
-3.8
21
11/06
-2.2
32
11/13
-7.9
6

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
13
3
Yards / Game
21
4
Passing Yards / Game
21
5
Rushing Yards / Game
19
28

EPA

EPA / Play
12
1
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
12
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
9
Interceptions / Game
8
14
Fumbles / Game
23
2
Turnover EPA / Game
22
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
5
4th Down Efficiency
4
8
RZ Efficiency
28
9
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
21
6
Yards / Game
27
23
Passing Yards / Game
19
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
27

EPA

EPA / Play
25
9
EPA / Pass
23
7
EPA / Rush
30
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
23
Interceptions / Game
12
3
Fumbles / Game
31
1
Turnover EPA / Game
18
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
28
4th Down Efficiency
11
15
RZ Efficiency
27
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
6
W
L
O
09/18
-7
L
L
U
09/25
21
W
W
U
10/02
-29
L
L
O
10/16
16
W
W
U
10/23
6
W
P
U
10/30
16
W
W
U
11/06
5
W
L
U
11/13
3
W
W
U
11/20
-2
L
L
U
DEN logo

Broncos

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
1
W
W
O
09/18
14
W
W
O
09/25
12
W
W
O
10/02
20
W
W
U
10/09
-7
L
L
U
10/13
-8
L
L
U
10/24
18
W
W
U
10/30
8
W
W
O
11/06
-10
L
L
O
11/13
2
W
W
U