KCChiefs
9-3
34
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
55°F
4 mph
28
DENBroncos
3-9
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
55°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
6
15
7
0
28
Broncos
0
14
7
7
28
Spread
+8.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
431
320
Total Plays
67
69
Yards / Play
6.4
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.06
Passing Yards
342
214
Comp/Att
28/42(67%)
27/44(61%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.20
Rushing Yards
89
106
Rush Attempts
23
19
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
50%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.35
-10.06
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-10
-49
Sack EPA
-3.13
-9.76
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
70
38
Penalty EPA
-4.75
-4.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market77.4%
Model77.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-181
Home nfelo
1,459
Away nfelo
1,638
Home Field
+29.4
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
-18.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
-32.0
Home QB Adjustment
-17.1
Away QB Adjustment
+14.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-213.9
Model Spread
+8.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+14.9
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-17.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
12
Yards / Game
1
8
Passing Yards / Game
12
9
Rushing Yards / Game
20
10
EPA
EPA / Play
1
13
EPA / Pass
1
7
EPA / Rush
6
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
1
Interceptions / Game
7
11
Fumbles / Game
6
20
Turnover EPA / Game
27
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
2
4th Down Efficiency
2
30
RZ Efficiency
2
8
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
18
Yards / Game
21
14
Passing Yards / Game
9
28
Rushing Yards / Game
21
8
EPA
EPA / Play
28
27
EPA / Pass
29
15
EPA / Rush
27
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
22
21
Fumbles / Game
11
2
Turnover EPA / Game
12
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
22
4th Down Efficiency
16
24
RZ Efficiency
14
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
7-3
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
1-9
O/U