KCChiefs
3-12
44
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
36°F
6 mph
24
DENBroncos
8-7
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
36°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
3
11
11
32
Broncos
0
10
14
0
24
Spread
+9
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
524
512
Total Plays
60
80
Yards / Play
8.7
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.35
-0.07
Passing Yards
--
428
Comp/Att
13/25(52%)
32/56(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.09
-0.21
Rushing Yards
317
84
Rush Attempts
35
22
Yards / Rush
9.1
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.58
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
30
Passing 1st downs
7
21
Rushing 1st downs
12
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
30%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.84
-21.76
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-3
Sack EPA
--
-1.69
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
76
54
Penalty EPA
-8.21
-9.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model80.8%
Spread Pick
Broncos-9.0
Expected Value
+15.2%
Cover Probability
58.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+286
Home nfelo
1,513
Away nfelo
1,282
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+9.9
Home QB Adjustment
+11.9
Away QB Adjustment
+2.0
Market Regression
-68.5
Final Difference
249.8
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
11
Yards / Game
25
7
Passing Yards / Game
20
4
Rushing Yards / Game
12
26
EPA
EPA / Play
26
12
EPA / Pass
26
6
EPA / Rush
26
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
14
Interceptions / Game
18
13
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
18
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
17
15
RZ Efficiency
23
14
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
29
Yards / Game
15
30
Passing Yards / Game
9
8
Rushing Yards / Game
18
30
EPA
EPA / Play
18
25
EPA / Pass
15
18
EPA / Rush
18
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
5
Interceptions / Game
7
16
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
20
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
14
4th Down Efficiency
25
24
RZ Efficiency
22
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Broncos
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U