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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ broncos week 17, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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KC logo
KCChiefs
2-13
3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
35°F
10 mph
38
DENBroncos
12-3
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
35°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
3
0
0
3
Broncos
7
14
14
3
38

Spread

DEN logo
-17

Total

PUSH
41
P

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
119
488
Total Plays
48
76
Yards / Play
2.5
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.29
Passing Yards
26
--
Comp/Att
7/16(44%)
25/33(76%)
Yards / Pass
1.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.78
+0.82
Rushing Yards
93
172
Rush Attempts
28
43
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
8
32
Passing 1st downs
2
19
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
29%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.61
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-23
--
Sack EPA
-4.56
--
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
32
30
Penalty EPA
-1.83
-2.54

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-16.0
Current
-17.0
Model
-17.5

Win Probability

Market90.9%
Model91.4%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
Broncos-17.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+448
Home nfelo
1,682
Away nfelo
1,319
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+40.0
Home QB Adjustment
+17.5
Away QB Adjustment
-22.5
Market Regression
-1.7
Final Difference
409.8
Model Spread
-17.5

Quarterbacks

B. Quinn headshot

B. Quinn

Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-22.5
Value
Ptile
12/06
4.4
79
12/10
-5.5
17
12/20
-5.3
18
10/14
-5.1
17
10/28
-8.6
5
11/25
-6.7
10
12/02
4.4
78
12/09
-9.5
3
12/16
-9.8
2
12/23
-8.2
6
P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
Value
Ptile
10/15
7.0
90
10/28
7.6
92
11/04
5.6
85
11/11
4.6
79
11/18
0.5
53
11/25
0.7
54
12/02
3.5
72
12/06
-0.7
45
12/16
-0.1
49
12/23
8.3
93

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
32
4
Yards / Game
24
2
Passing Yards / Game
31
19
Rushing Yards / Game
5
4

EPA

EPA / Play
31
3
EPA / Pass
31
6
EPA / Rush
16
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
31
Interceptions / Game
31
14
Fumbles / Game
28
21
Turnover EPA / Game
4
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
1
4th Down Efficiency
19
5
RZ Efficiency
32
25
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
2
25
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
29
4
Rushing Yards / Game
15
27

EPA

EPA / Play
4
31
EPA / Pass
2
32
EPA / Rush
26
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
10
Interceptions / Game
8
31
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
12
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
17
4th Down Efficiency
3
30
RZ Efficiency
4
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
-28
L
L
O
10/28
-10
L
L
O
11/01
-18
L
L
O
11/12
-3
L
W
U
11/18
-22
L
L
U
11/25
-8
L
W
U
12/02
6
W
W
O
12/09
-23
L
L
U
12/16
-15
L
L
U
12/23
-7
L
L
U
DEN logo

Broncos

10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
11
W
W
O
10/28
20
W
W
U
11/04
8
W
W
O
11/11
22
W
W
O
11/18
7
W
L
O
11/25
8
W
L
U
12/02
8
W
L
O
12/06
13
W
W
U
12/16
17
W
W
O
12/23
22
W
W
O