KCChiefs
2-13
3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
35°F
10 mph
38
DENBroncos
12-3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
35°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
3
0
0
3
Broncos
7
14
14
3
38
Spread
-17
Total
PUSH
41
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
119
488
Total Plays
48
76
Yards / Play
2.5
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.29
Passing Yards
26
--
Comp/Att
7/16(44%)
25/33(76%)
Yards / Pass
1.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.78
+0.82
Rushing Yards
93
172
Rush Attempts
28
43
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
8
32
Passing 1st downs
2
19
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
29%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.61
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-23
--
Sack EPA
-4.56
--
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
32
30
Penalty EPA
-1.83
-2.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-16.0
Current
-17.0
Model
-17.5
Win Probability
Market90.9%
Model91.4%
Spread Pick
Broncos-17.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+449
Home nfelo
1,685
Away nfelo
1,321
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+40.0
Home QB Adjustment
+17.5
Away QB Adjustment
-22.5
Market Regression
-1.9
Final Difference
409.8
Model Spread
-17.5
Quarterbacks
B. Quinn
Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-22.5
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
4
Yards / Game
24
2
Passing Yards / Game
31
19
Rushing Yards / Game
5
4
EPA
EPA / Play
31
3
EPA / Pass
31
6
EPA / Rush
16
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
31
Interceptions / Game
31
14
Fumbles / Game
28
21
Turnover EPA / Game
4
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
1
4th Down Efficiency
19
5
RZ Efficiency
32
25
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
25
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
29
4
Rushing Yards / Game
15
27
EPA
EPA / Play
4
31
EPA / Pass
2
32
EPA / Rush
26
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
10
Interceptions / Game
8
31
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
12
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
17
4th Down Efficiency
3
30
RZ Efficiency
4
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U