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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ browns week 2, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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KC logo
KCChiefs
1-0
16
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
65°F
16 mph
14
CLEBrowns
0-1
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
65°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
1
3
3
10
Browns
0
14
0
0
14

Spread

KC logo
+3

Total

UNDER
38

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
312
299
Total Plays
68
58
Yards / Play
4.6
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.20
Passing Yards
172
226
Comp/Att
16/28(57%)
16/31(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.14
Rushing Yards
140
73
Rush Attempts
39
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
16
13
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.77
-12.93
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-4
-3
Sack EPA
-1.72
-0.58
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
--
78
Penalty EPA
--
-7.82

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+119
Home nfelo
1,383
Away nfelo
1,411
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+73.6
Home QB Adjustment
+66.4
Away QB Adjustment
-7.2
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
Value
Ptile
11/08
0.4
53
11/15
-4.2
23
11/22
-1.1
43
11/29
-0.1
48
12/06
-10.8
2
12/13
-9.0
4
12/20
5.1
83
12/27
-1.6
40
01/03
-1.4
40
09/13
-4.2
22
S. Wallace headshot

S. Wallace

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+66.4
Value
Ptile
10/19
-3.1
27
10/26
3.0
72
11/02
-4.1
22
11/09
-2.0
36
12/07
8.9
96
12/14
-2.5
31
12/21
1.9
65
12/28
-1.3
42
09/27
-1.8
39
10/04
4.0
76

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Browns Defense
Chiefs logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
18
12
Yards / Game
16
22
Passing Yards / Game
31
11
Rushing Yards / Game
1
26

EPA

EPA / Play
16
23
EPA / Pass
13
25
EPA / Rush
7
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
16
Interceptions / Game
4
8
Fumbles / Game
15
17
Turnover EPA / Game
31
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
28
4th Down Efficiency
22
31
RZ Efficiency
7
8
Browns Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Browns logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
31
14
Yards / Game
30
16
Passing Yards / Game
28
22
Rushing Yards / Game
21
16

EPA

EPA / Play
23
18
EPA / Pass
27
17
EPA / Rush
22
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
20
Interceptions / Game
19
22
Fumbles / Game
13
30
Turnover EPA / Game
11
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
18
4th Down Efficiency
1
6
RZ Efficiency
27
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
-3
L
W
O
11/15
6
W
W
U
11/22
3
W
W
O
11/29
-29
L
L
O
12/06
-31
L
L
O
12/13
-6
L
L
U
12/20
-7
L
L
O
12/27
-7
L
W
U
01/03
20
W
W
O
09/13
7
W
W
U
CLE logo

Browns

4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
-24
L
L
U
11/16
-16
L
L
U
11/22
-1
L
W
O
11/29
-9
L
W
U
12/06
-7
L
W
O
12/10
7
W
W
U
12/20
7
W
W
O
12/27
14
W
W
U
01/03
6
W
W
O
09/12
-3
L
L
U