KCChiefs
1-0
16
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
65°F
16 mph
14
CLEBrowns
0-1
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
65°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
1
3
3
10
Browns
0
14
0
0
14
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
312
299
Total Plays
68
58
Yards / Play
4.6
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.20
Passing Yards
172
226
Comp/Att
16/28(57%)
16/31(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.14
Rushing Yards
140
73
Rush Attempts
39
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
13
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.77
-12.93
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-4
-3
Sack EPA
-1.72
-0.58
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
--
78
Penalty EPA
--
-7.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+121
Home nfelo
1,383
Away nfelo
1,410
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+73.6
Home QB Adjustment
+66.4
Away QB Adjustment
-7.2
Market Regression
+6.7
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
S. Wallace
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+66.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
12
Yards / Game
16
22
Passing Yards / Game
31
11
Rushing Yards / Game
1
26
EPA
EPA / Play
16
23
EPA / Pass
13
25
EPA / Rush
7
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
16
Interceptions / Game
4
8
Fumbles / Game
15
17
Turnover EPA / Game
31
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
28
4th Down Efficiency
22
31
RZ Efficiency
7
8
Browns Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
14
Yards / Game
30
16
Passing Yards / Game
28
22
Rushing Yards / Game
21
16
EPA
EPA / Play
23
18
EPA / Pass
27
17
EPA / Rush
22
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
20
Interceptions / Game
19
22
Fumbles / Game
13
30
Turnover EPA / Game
11
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
18
4th Down Efficiency
1
6
RZ Efficiency
27
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Browns
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U