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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ browns week 14, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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KC logo
KCChiefs
2-10
7
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
44°F
5 mph
30
CLEBrowns
4-8
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
44°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
0
0
0
7
Browns
3
1
10
10
24

Spread

CLE logo
-7

Total

UNDER
38

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
310
352
Total Plays
52
68
Yards / Play
6.0
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.32
+0.09
Passing Yards
130
198
Comp/Att
10/21(48%)
17/30(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.54
+0.13
Rushing Yards
180
154
Rush Attempts
26
35
Yards / Rush
6.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
12
20
Passing 1st downs
4
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
9%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.20
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-29
-19
Sack EPA
-7.24
-3.55
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
35
55
Penalty EPA
-4.80
-5.71

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+168
Home nfelo
1,461
Away nfelo
1,372
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+5.2
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
-4.5
Market Regression
+38.2
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

B. Quinn headshot

B. Quinn

Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
Value
Ptile
11/16
-13.0
1
11/22
7.1
90
11/29
-2.9
31
12/06
4.4
79
12/10
-5.5
17
12/20
-5.3
18
10/14
-5.1
17
10/28
-8.6
5
11/25
-6.7
10
12/02
4.4
78
B. Weeden headshot

B. Weeden

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Value
Ptile
09/23
-5.3
16
09/27
-2.2
34
10/07
1.9
61
10/14
-0.6
46
10/21
5.3
83
10/28
-7.9
6
11/04
-5.6
15
11/18
0.4
52
11/25
-3.6
27
12/02
1.4
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Browns Defense
Chiefs logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
32
19
Yards / Game
24
22
Passing Yards / Game
31
20
Rushing Yards / Game
5
18

EPA

EPA / Play
31
12
EPA / Pass
31
18
EPA / Rush
16
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
15
Interceptions / Game
31
11
Fumbles / Game
28
5
Turnover EPA / Game
4
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
14
4th Down Efficiency
19
27
RZ Efficiency
32
23
Browns Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Browns logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
24
25
Yards / Game
25
19
Passing Yards / Game
24
4
Rushing Yards / Game
24
27

EPA

EPA / Play
26
31
EPA / Pass
27
32
EPA / Rush
13
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
10
Interceptions / Game
27
31
Fumbles / Game
3
26
Turnover EPA / Game
17
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
17
4th Down Efficiency
21
30
RZ Efficiency
30
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
3
W
W
U
09/30
-17
L
L
O
10/07
-3
L
W
U
10/14
-28
L
L
O
10/28
-10
L
L
O
11/01
-18
L
L
O
11/12
-3
L
W
U
11/18
-22
L
L
U
11/25
-8
L
W
U
12/02
6
W
W
O
CLE logo

Browns

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
-10
L
L
U
09/27
-7
L
W
U
10/07
-14
L
L
O
10/14
10
W
W
O
10/21
-4
L
L
U
10/28
1
W
W
U
11/04
-10
L
L
U
11/18
-3
L
W
U
11/25
6
W
W
O
12/02
3
W
W
U