KCChiefs
2-10
7
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
44°F
5 mph
30
CLEBrowns
4-8
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
44°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
0
0
0
7
Browns
3
1
10
10
24
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
310
352
Total Plays
52
68
Yards / Play
6.0
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.32
+0.09
Passing Yards
130
198
Comp/Att
10/21(48%)
17/30(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.54
+0.13
Rushing Yards
180
154
Rush Attempts
26
35
Yards / Rush
6.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
20
Passing 1st downs
4
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
9%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.20
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-29
-19
Sack EPA
-7.24
-3.55
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
35
55
Penalty EPA
-4.80
-5.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+164
Home nfelo
1,459
Away nfelo
1,374
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+5.2
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
-4.5
Market Regression
+38.9
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
B. Quinn
Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
B. Weeden
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
19
Yards / Game
24
22
Passing Yards / Game
31
20
Rushing Yards / Game
5
18
EPA
EPA / Play
31
12
EPA / Pass
31
18
EPA / Rush
16
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
15
Interceptions / Game
31
11
Fumbles / Game
28
5
Turnover EPA / Game
4
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
14
4th Down Efficiency
19
27
RZ Efficiency
32
23
Browns Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
25
Yards / Game
25
19
Passing Yards / Game
24
4
Rushing Yards / Game
24
27
EPA
EPA / Play
26
31
EPA / Pass
27
32
EPA / Rush
13
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
10
Interceptions / Game
27
31
Fumbles / Game
3
26
Turnover EPA / Game
17
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
17
4th Down Efficiency
21
30
RZ Efficiency
30
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Browns
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U