KCChiefs
1-4
10
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
85°F
9 mph
38
TBBuccaneers
1-3
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
85°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
3
0
1
4
Buccaneers
7
0
8
17
32
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
260
463
Total Plays
68
51
Yards / Play
3.8
9.1
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.13
Passing Yards
--
318
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
--
12.2
EPA / Pass
-0.44
+0.38
Rushing Yards
80
145
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
2.7
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
35%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
9
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-14.90
-10.83
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-2.27
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
55
33
Penalty EPA
-0.56
-4.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model65.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+70
Home nfelo
1,436
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+91.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-3.9
Home QB Adjustment
-11.9
Away QB Adjustment
-8.0
Market Regression
+24.0
Final Difference
112.7
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
B. Quinn
Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-8.0
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-11.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
23
Yards / Game
24
29
Passing Yards / Game
31
17
Rushing Yards / Game
5
1
EPA
EPA / Play
31
18
EPA / Pass
31
25
EPA / Rush
16
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
26
Interceptions / Game
31
9
Fumbles / Game
28
26
Turnover EPA / Game
4
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
25
4th Down Efficiency
19
9
RZ Efficiency
32
17
Buccaneers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
25
Yards / Game
12
19
Passing Yards / Game
7
4
Rushing Yards / Game
16
27
EPA
EPA / Play
15
31
EPA / Pass
15
32
EPA / Rush
9
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
10
Interceptions / Game
22
31
Fumbles / Game
3
26
Turnover EPA / Game
21
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
17
4th Down Efficiency
23
30
RZ Efficiency
8
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Buccaneers
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U