KCChiefs
3-0
17
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
010
LACChargers
2-1
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
7
3
7
17
Chargers
10
0
0
0
10
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
329
224
Total Plays
58
53
Yards / Play
5.7
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.31
Passing Yards
228
169
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.08
Rushing Yards
101
55
Rush Attempts
26
24
Yards / Rush
3.9
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
12
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
56%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.67
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-17
-10
Sack EPA
-5.53
-2.34
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
--
51
Penalty EPA
--
-5.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model68.8%
Spread Pick
Chargers+7.5
Expected Value
+14.3%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-94
Home nfelo
1,512
Away nfelo
1,651
Home Field
+50.2
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
-21.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
+8.3
Net QB Adjustment
-6.2
Home QB Adjustment
-9.6
Away QB Adjustment
-3.4
Market Regression
+4.8
Final Difference
-137.3
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-3.4
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-9.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
2
Yards / Game
19
11
Passing Yards / Game
19
18
Rushing Yards / Game
26
14
EPA
EPA / Play
10
4
EPA / Pass
10
4
EPA / Rush
12
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
14
7
Fumbles / Game
5
13
Turnover EPA / Game
22
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
4
4th Down Efficiency
6
25
RZ Efficiency
21
2
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
6
Yards / Game
20
9
Passing Yards / Game
16
17
Rushing Yards / Game
20
10
EPA
EPA / Play
13
16
EPA / Pass
14
25
EPA / Rush
19
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
15
Interceptions / Game
5
17
Fumbles / Game
3
26
Turnover EPA / Game
29
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
24
4th Down Efficiency
13
9
RZ Efficiency
18
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
2-6-2
O/U
Chargers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U