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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ chargers week 4, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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KC logo
KCChiefs
3-0
17
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
10
LACChargers
2-1
LAC logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
7
3
7
17
Chargers
10
0
0
0
10

Spread

LAC logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
329
224
Total Plays
58
53
Yards / Play
5.7
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.31
Passing Yards
228
169
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.08
Rushing Yards
101
55
Rush Attempts
26
24
Yards / Rush
3.9
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
16
12
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
56%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.67
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-17
-10
Sack EPA
-5.53
-2.34
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
--
51
Penalty EPA
--
-5.44

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market74.9%
Model68.3%
Spread Pick
LAC logo
Chargers+7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.3%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-88
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,646
Home Field
+50.2
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
-21.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
+8.3
Net QB Adjustment
-6.2
Home QB Adjustment
-9.6
Away QB Adjustment
-3.3
Market Regression
+4.7
Final Difference
-133.7
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
Value
Ptile
12/17
0.1
50
12/25
-1.9
36
12/31
1.2
56
01/13
7.6
92
01/21
6.5
89
01/28
4.8
80
02/11
8.5
95
09/05
1.3
58
09/15
-2.1
34
09/22
1.3
58
J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-9.6
Value
Ptile
10/29
8.4
95
11/06
-7.4
10
11/12
7.8
93
11/19
6.2
87
11/26
1.9
63
12/03
-1.0
44
12/10
-10.3
3
09/08
-2.0
35
09/15
-1.0
41
09/22
-2.9
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
12
2
Yards / Game
19
11
Passing Yards / Game
19
18
Rushing Yards / Game
26
14

EPA

EPA / Play
10
4
EPA / Pass
10
4
EPA / Rush
12
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
14
7
Fumbles / Game
5
13
Turnover EPA / Game
22
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
4
4th Down Efficiency
6
25
RZ Efficiency
21
2
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
13
6
Yards / Game
20
9
Passing Yards / Game
16
17
Rushing Yards / Game
20
10

EPA

EPA / Play
13
16
EPA / Pass
14
25
EPA / Rush
19
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
15
Interceptions / Game
5
17
Fumbles / Game
3
26
Turnover EPA / Game
29
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
24
4th Down Efficiency
13
9
RZ Efficiency
18
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
2-6-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/25
-6
L
L
U
12/31
8
W
W
U
01/07
1
W
W
U
01/13
19
W
W
U
01/21
3
W
W
O
01/28
7
W
W
U
02/11
3
W
W
P
09/05
7
W
W
P
09/15
1
W
L
O
09/22
5
W
W
U
LAC logo

Chargers

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
-10
L
L
U
12/03
6
W
W
U
12/10
-17
L
L
U
12/14
-42
L
L
O
12/23
-2
L
W
O
12/31
-7
L
L
U
01/07
-1
L
L
U
09/08
12
W
W
U
09/15
23
W
W
U
09/22
-10
L
L
U