KCChiefs
2-3
23
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
75°F
2 mph
20
LACChargers
5-1
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
75°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
10
3
10
23
Chargers
7
7
0
6
20
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
251
Total Plays
70
49
Yards / Play
5.2
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.11
Passing Yards
211
182
Comp/Att
19/28(68%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.04
Rushing Yards
154
69
Rush Attempts
39
16
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
50%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-1.03
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-10
-23
Sack EPA
-4.17
-3.04
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
73
--
Penalty EPA
-6.47
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+81
Home nfelo
1,589
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
-14.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+22.2
Home QB Adjustment
+26.1
Away QB Adjustment
+3.9
Market Regression
-55.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+26.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
12
Yards / Game
25
10
Passing Yards / Game
24
1
Rushing Yards / Game
11
25
EPA
EPA / Play
9
23
EPA / Pass
12
21
EPA / Rush
4
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
16
Interceptions / Game
1
28
Fumbles / Game
22
6
Turnover EPA / Game
32
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
24
4th Down Efficiency
21
3
RZ Efficiency
9
14
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
2
Yards / Game
19
8
Passing Yards / Game
8
20
Rushing Yards / Game
30
28
EPA
EPA / Play
12
12
EPA / Pass
7
8
EPA / Rush
27
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
7
Interceptions / Game
26
30
Fumbles / Game
2
25
Turnover EPA / Game
23
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
5
4th Down Efficiency
19
8
RZ Efficiency
15
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chargers
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U