KCChiefs
4-5
33
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
87°F
4 mph
3
LACChargers
2-7
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
87°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
6
6
1
14
27
Chargers
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
385
201
Total Plays
59
58
Yards / Play
6.5
3.5
EPA / Play
+0.30
-0.30
Passing Yards
232
149
Comp/Att
20/25(80%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.17
-0.33
Rushing Yards
153
52
Rush Attempts
31
25
Yards / Rush
4.9
2.1
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
14
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
42%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
60%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+5.34
-8.03
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-21
-29
Sack EPA
-5.18
-5.28
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
35
39
Penalty EPA
-3.62
-4.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-52
Home nfelo
1,443
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+51.6
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
-27.9
Home Bye Adj
+17.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.6
Home QB Adjustment
+25.4
Away QB Adjustment
+6.8
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.8
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+25.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
21
Yards / Game
25
21
Passing Yards / Game
19
17
Rushing Yards / Game
6
27
EPA
EPA / Play
5
30
EPA / Pass
15
19
EPA / Rush
1
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
13
Interceptions / Game
1
20
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
30
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
13
4th Down Efficiency
2
32
RZ Efficiency
12
7
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
1
Yards / Game
7
6
Passing Yards / Game
1
7
Rushing Yards / Game
30
6
EPA
EPA / Play
18
5
EPA / Pass
11
3
EPA / Rush
31
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
8
Interceptions / Game
16
2
Fumbles / Game
21
23
Turnover EPA / Game
15
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
5
4th Down Efficiency
29
15
RZ Efficiency
7
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Chargers
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U