nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ chargers week 11, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

KC logo
KCChiefs
7-2
30
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
27
LACChargers
5-4
LAC logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
6
7
3
14
30
Chargers
10
10
0
7
27

Spread

LAC logo
+5

Total

OVER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
485
365
Total Plays
62
65
Yards / Play
7.8
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.08
Passing Yards
322
250
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
23/30(77%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.41
+0.06
Rushing Yards
163
115
Rush Attempts
27
30
Yards / Rush
6.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.86
-6.27
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-7
-30
Sack EPA
-1.78
-6.08
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
54
25
Penalty EPA
-5.17
-3.59

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.5%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-108
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,638
Home Field
+50.0
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
-17.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
+14.3
Net QB Adjustment
-28.8
Home QB Adjustment
-7.8
Away QB Adjustment
+21.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-127.0
Model Spread
+5.0

Quarterbacks

P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.1
Value
Ptile
01/30
-1.0
45
09/11
13.5
99
09/15
2.8
74
09/25
-0.4
49
10/02
2.8
74
10/10
6.0
89
10/16
2.1
69
10/23
9.6
96
11/06
8.0
93
11/13
10.2
97
J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-7.8
Value
Ptile
01/09
-0.5
49
09/11
7.0
91
09/15
3.8
80
09/25
-0.9
46
10/02
5.6
87
10/09
1.9
68
10/17
-1.2
45
10/23
1.7
65
11/06
-0.3
50
11/13
-2.2
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
23
Yards / Game
1
20
Passing Yards / Game
12
7
Rushing Yards / Game
20
27

EPA

EPA / Play
1
14
EPA / Pass
1
9
EPA / Rush
6
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
16
Interceptions / Game
7
5
Fumbles / Game
6
27
Turnover EPA / Game
27
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
11
4th Down Efficiency
2
9
RZ Efficiency
2
12
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
12
18
Yards / Game
8
14
Passing Yards / Game
5
28
Rushing Yards / Game
30
8

EPA

EPA / Play
18
27
EPA / Pass
12
15
EPA / Rush
17
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
30
Interceptions / Game
6
21
Fumbles / Game
27
2
Turnover EPA / Game
29
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
22
4th Down Efficiency
15
24
RZ Efficiency
18
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

7-3
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/30
-3
L
L
U
09/11
23
W
W
O
09/15
3
W
L
U
09/25
-3
L
L
U
10/02
10
W
W
O
10/10
1
W
L
O
10/16
-4
L
L
U
10/23
21
W
W
O
11/06
3
W
L
U
11/13
10
W
P
U
LAC logo

Chargers

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/09
-3
L
L
O
09/11
5
W
W
U
09/15
-3
L
W
U
09/25
-28
L
L
O
10/02
10
W
W
O
10/09
2
W
W
O
10/17
3
W
L
U
10/23
-14
L
L
O
11/06
3
W
W
U
11/13
-6
L
W
U