KCChiefs
7-2
30
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
027
LACChargers
5-4
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
6
7
3
14
30
Chargers
10
10
0
7
27
Spread
+5
Total
OVER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
485
365
Total Plays
62
65
Yards / Play
7.8
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.08
Passing Yards
322
250
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
23/30(77%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.41
+0.06
Rushing Yards
163
115
Rush Attempts
27
30
Yards / Rush
6.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.86
-6.27
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-7
-30
Sack EPA
-1.78
-6.08
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
54
25
Penalty EPA
-5.17
-3.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-108
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,638
Home Field
+50.0
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
-17.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
+14.3
Net QB Adjustment
-28.8
Home QB Adjustment
-7.8
Away QB Adjustment
+21.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-127.0
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+21.1
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
23
Yards / Game
1
20
Passing Yards / Game
12
7
Rushing Yards / Game
20
27
EPA
EPA / Play
1
14
EPA / Pass
1
9
EPA / Rush
6
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
16
Interceptions / Game
7
5
Fumbles / Game
6
27
Turnover EPA / Game
27
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
11
4th Down Efficiency
2
9
RZ Efficiency
2
12
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
18
Yards / Game
8
14
Passing Yards / Game
5
28
Rushing Yards / Game
30
8
EPA
EPA / Play
18
27
EPA / Pass
12
15
EPA / Rush
17
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
30
Interceptions / Game
6
21
Fumbles / Game
27
2
Turnover EPA / Game
29
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
22
4th Down Efficiency
15
24
RZ Efficiency
18
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
7-3
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chargers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U