KCChiefs
3-7
14
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
63°F
8 mph
43
LACChargers
7-3
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
63°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
7
7
0
14
Chargers
7
15
10
3
35
Spread
-13
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
284
426
Total Plays
57
63
Yards / Play
5.0
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.24
Passing Yards
170
--
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
22/29(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.21
+0.71
Rushing Yards
114
94
Rush Attempts
23
34
Yards / Rush
5.0
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.37
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
9
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
27%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-21.05
-5.18
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-8.06
--
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
25
55
Penalty EPA
-4.64
-5.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-14.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model84.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+302
Home nfelo
1,596
Away nfelo
1,333
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.5
Home QB Adjustment
+12.0
Away QB Adjustment
+7.5
Market Regression
-44.5
Final Difference
300.0
Model Spread
-13.0
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
10
Yards / Game
25
12
Passing Yards / Game
20
26
Rushing Yards / Game
12
21
EPA
EPA / Play
26
23
EPA / Pass
26
19
EPA / Rush
26
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
25
Interceptions / Game
18
20
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
18
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
22
4th Down Efficiency
17
20
RZ Efficiency
23
18
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
29
Yards / Game
10
30
Passing Yards / Game
4
8
Rushing Yards / Game
31
30
EPA
EPA / Play
1
25
EPA / Pass
1
18
EPA / Rush
28
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
5
Interceptions / Game
6
16
Fumbles / Game
3
7
Turnover EPA / Game
32
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
14
4th Down Efficiency
13
24
RZ Efficiency
10
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-3-2
O/U
Chargers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U