KCChiefs
8-4
0
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
86°F
5 mph
31
LACChargers
6-6
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
86°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
0
0
0
0
Chargers
7
14
0
10
31
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
67
426
Total Plays
41
69
Yards / Play
1.6
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.40
+0.23
Passing Yards
19
219
Comp/Att
9/20(45%)
18/24(75%)
Yards / Pass
0.9
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.67
+0.49
Rushing Yards
48
207
Rush Attempts
17
43
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
5
25
Passing 1st downs
3
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
0%
73%
3rd Down Conversions
--
11
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.28
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-29
-7
Sack EPA
-4.04
-6.25
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
--
47
Penalty EPA
--
-5.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model78.4%
Spread Pick
Chiefs+10.0
Expected Value
+3.7%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+178
Home nfelo
1,593
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+44.4
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
-44.8
Market Regression
+7.3
Final Difference
224.2
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
B. Croyle
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-44.8
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
9
Yards / Game
16
1
Passing Yards / Game
31
2
Rushing Yards / Game
1
4
EPA
EPA / Play
16
7
EPA / Pass
13
2
EPA / Rush
7
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
11
Interceptions / Game
4
14
Fumbles / Game
15
28
Turnover EPA / Game
31
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
4
4th Down Efficiency
22
11
RZ Efficiency
7
28
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
14
Yards / Game
1
16
Passing Yards / Game
1
22
Rushing Yards / Game
14
16
EPA
EPA / Play
6
18
EPA / Pass
1
17
EPA / Rush
20
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
20
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
28
30
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
18
4th Down Efficiency
25
6
RZ Efficiency
12
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chargers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U