KCChiefs
9-4
34
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
028
LACChargers
8-5
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chiefs
7
3
3
15
6
34
Chargers
0
14
0
14
0
28
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
498
428
Total Plays
68
78
Yards / Play
7.3
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.04
Passing Yards
410
--
Comp/Att
31/47(66%)
22/39(56%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.11
Rushing Yards
86
192
Rush Attempts
20
39
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
28
Passing 1st downs
20
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
14
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
58%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
57%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
6
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.36
-11.30
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
-4.39
--
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
36
60
Penalty EPA
-4.54
-5.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-41
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,664
Home Field
+46.6
Base HFA
+37.1
Divisional Adj
-16.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.9
Time Adj
+13.3
Net QB Adjustment
+38.1
Home QB Adjustment
+24.9
Away QB Adjustment
-13.2
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-13.2
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
29
Yards / Game
1
23
Passing Yards / Game
4
23
Rushing Yards / Game
12
30
EPA
EPA / Play
1
25
EPA / Pass
1
17
EPA / Rush
5
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
27
Interceptions / Game
13
22
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
13
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
32
4th Down Efficiency
2
1
RZ Efficiency
11
27
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
17
Yards / Game
4
26
Passing Yards / Game
5
20
Rushing Yards / Game
21
19
EPA
EPA / Play
7
24
EPA / Pass
7
22
EPA / Rush
16
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
24
Interceptions / Game
21
15
Fumbles / Game
7
5
Turnover EPA / Game
15
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
22
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
3
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U