KCChiefs
3-0
9
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
019
INDColts
2-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
3
6
0
9
Colts
3
3
3
10
19
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
261
341
Total Plays
57
76
Yards / Play
4.6
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.07
Passing Yards
148
244
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
26/44(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.07
+0.01
Rushing Yards
113
97
Rush Attempts
27
31
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
10%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
1
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.04
-3.07
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-2.16
-0.62
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
38
45
Penalty EPA
-6.33
-4.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model77.3%
Spread Pick
Colts-7.5
Expected Value
+2.3%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+243
Home nfelo
1,606
Away nfelo
1,437
Home Field
+46.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+26.7
Home QB Adjustment
+26.1
Away QB Adjustment
-0.6
Market Regression
-4.2
Final Difference
212.7
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+26.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
23
Yards / Game
16
20
Passing Yards / Game
31
15
Rushing Yards / Game
1
27
EPA
EPA / Play
16
29
EPA / Pass
13
21
EPA / Rush
7
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
31
Interceptions / Game
4
30
Fumbles / Game
15
21
Turnover EPA / Game
31
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
23
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
7
16
Colts Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
14
Yards / Game
6
16
Passing Yards / Game
8
22
Rushing Yards / Game
29
16
EPA
EPA / Play
3
18
EPA / Pass
4
17
EPA / Rush
13
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
20
Interceptions / Game
16
22
Fumbles / Game
7
30
Turnover EPA / Game
21
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
18
4th Down Efficiency
7
6
RZ Efficiency
1
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U