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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ commanders week 6, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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KC logo
KCChiefs
0-5
14
TBD
FedExField
45°F
13 mph
6
WASCommanders
2-3
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
45°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
3
3
6
12
Commanders
0
0
6
0
6

Spread

KC logo
+6

Total

UNDER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
268
265
Total Plays
72
53
Yards / Play
3.7
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.38
Passing Yards
158
147
Comp/Att
17/32(53%)
15/30(50%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.30
Rushing Yards
110
118
Rush Attempts
35
20
Yards / Rush
3.1
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
16
7
Passing 1st downs
9
4
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
24%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.52
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-28
-17
Sack EPA
-9.01
-5.12
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
30
63
Penalty EPA
-3.91
-6.52

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+167
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,325
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-35.4
Home QB Adjustment
-2.6
Away QB Adjustment
+32.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+32.9
Value
Ptile
11/23
12.0
99
11/30
-10.3
2
12/07
-0.5
49
12/14
3.0
71
12/21
7.4
92
12/28
-2.6
30
09/20
-0.1
48
09/27
-0.4
47
10/04
-3.5
27
10/11
1.6
60
J. Campbell headshot

J. Campbell

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
Value
Ptile
11/30
-1.5
40
12/07
-1.9
37
12/14
1.4
62
12/21
-1.7
39
12/28
4.2
78
09/13
1.5
59
09/20
2.7
67
09/27
4.6
79
10/04
-6.3
13
10/11
-3.7
26

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Commanders Defense
Chiefs logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
23
17
Yards / Game
25
11
Passing Yards / Game
20
27
Rushing Yards / Game
12
15

EPA

EPA / Play
26
20
EPA / Pass
26
25
EPA / Rush
26
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
5
Interceptions / Game
18
26
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
18
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
21
4th Down Efficiency
17
1
RZ Efficiency
23
1
Commanders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Commanders logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
26
29
Yards / Game
22
30
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
28
30

EPA

EPA / Play
21
25
EPA / Pass
18
18
EPA / Rush
23
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
5
Interceptions / Game
16
16
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
24
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
14
4th Down Efficiency
30
24
RZ Efficiency
8
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
3-1-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
7
W
W
P
12/07
-7
L
W
P
12/14
-1
L
W
P
12/21
-7
L
L
P
12/28
-10
L
L
P
09/13
-14
L
L
O
09/20
-3
L
L
U
09/27
-20
L
L
O
10/04
-11
L
L
P
10/11
-6
L
W
O
WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
1-4-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
-16
L
L
P
12/07
-14
L
L
P
12/14
-7
L
L
P
12/21
7
W
W
P
12/28
-3
L
L
P
09/13
-6
L
P
O
09/20
2
W
L
U
09/27
-5
L
L
U
10/04
3
W
L
U
10/11
-3
L
W
U