KCChiefs
0-5
14
TBD
FedExField
45°F
13 mph
6
WASCommanders
2-3
TBD
FedExField
45°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
3
3
6
12
Commanders
0
0
6
0
6
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
268
265
Total Plays
72
53
Yards / Play
3.7
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.38
Passing Yards
158
147
Comp/Att
17/32(53%)
15/30(50%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.30
Rushing Yards
110
118
Rush Attempts
35
20
Yards / Rush
3.1
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
7
Passing 1st downs
9
4
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
24%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.52
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-28
-17
Sack EPA
-9.01
-5.12
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
30
63
Penalty EPA
-3.91
-6.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+167
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,325
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-35.4
Home QB Adjustment
-2.6
Away QB Adjustment
+32.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+32.9
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
17
Yards / Game
25
11
Passing Yards / Game
20
27
Rushing Yards / Game
12
15
EPA
EPA / Play
26
20
EPA / Pass
26
25
EPA / Rush
26
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
5
Interceptions / Game
18
26
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
18
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
21
4th Down Efficiency
17
1
RZ Efficiency
23
1
Commanders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
29
Yards / Game
22
30
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
28
30
EPA
EPA / Play
21
25
EPA / Pass
18
18
EPA / Rush
23
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
5
Interceptions / Game
16
16
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
24
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
14
4th Down Efficiency
30
24
RZ Efficiency
8
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
3-1-6
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
1-4-5
O/U