KCChiefs
9-3
45
TBD
FedExField
30°F
10 mph
10
WASCommanders
3-9
TBD
FedExField
30°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
17
15
0
7
39
Commanders
0
10
0
0
10
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
346
257
Total Plays
61
65
Yards / Play
5.7
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.50
Passing Yards
--
192
Comp/Att
15/23(65%)
19/42(45%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.21
-0.46
Rushing Yards
192
65
Rush Attempts
38
17
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
13
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
18%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.11
-11.06
Sacks
--
6
Sack Yards
--
-31
Sack EPA
--
-6.60
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
30
27
Penalty EPA
+1.88
-2.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-37
Home nfelo
1,420
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-30.8
Home QB Adjustment
-10.2
Away QB Adjustment
+20.6
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.6
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
30
Yards / Game
12
19
Passing Yards / Game
23
26
Rushing Yards / Game
10
17
EPA
EPA / Play
9
24
EPA / Pass
17
27
EPA / Rush
7
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
14
Interceptions / Game
1
14
Fumbles / Game
28
11
Turnover EPA / Game
32
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
4
4th Down Efficiency
27
29
RZ Efficiency
6
29
Commanders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
7
Yards / Game
10
25
Passing Yards / Game
19
6
Rushing Yards / Game
5
22
EPA
EPA / Play
28
5
EPA / Pass
22
9
EPA / Rush
11
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
19
Interceptions / Game
20
3
Fumbles / Game
29
3
Turnover EPA / Game
7
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
8
4th Down Efficiency
29
20
RZ Efficiency
18
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U