KCChiefs
6-2
17
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
028
DALCowboys
4-3
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
10
7
0
17
Cowboys
7
7
7
7
28
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
323
375
Total Plays
55
65
Yards / Play
5.9
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.20
Passing Yards
255
244
Comp/Att
25/34(74%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.26
Rushing Yards
68
131
Rush Attempts
19
31
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
24
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.08
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-5
Sack EPA
-3.58
-0.77
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
52
65
Penalty EPA
-5.20
-11.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+38
Home nfelo
1,562
Away nfelo
1,596
Home Field
+75.9
Base HFA
+56.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.1
Home QB Adjustment
+17.5
Away QB Adjustment
+21.7
Market Regression
+27.9
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.7
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
9
Yards / Game
6
6
Passing Yards / Game
3
1
Rushing Yards / Game
10
8
EPA
EPA / Play
3
16
EPA / Pass
5
20
EPA / Rush
5
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
22
Interceptions / Game
3
25
Fumbles / Game
5
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
29
4th Down Efficiency
29
6
RZ Efficiency
29
22
Cowboys Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
15
Yards / Game
14
29
Passing Yards / Game
27
2
Rushing Yards / Game
2
28
EPA
EPA / Play
10
24
EPA / Pass
19
19
EPA / Rush
1
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
17
Interceptions / Game
17
9
Fumbles / Game
13
21
Turnover EPA / Game
19
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
26
4th Down Efficiency
11
20
RZ Efficiency
7
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Cowboys
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U