KCChiefs
16-3
38
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
035
PHIEagles
16-3
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
1
7
17
32
Eagles
7
17
3
8
35
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
340
419
Total Plays
53
73
Yards / Play
6.4
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.13
Passing Yards
--
302
Comp/Att
21/27(78%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.46
+0.34
Rushing Yards
158
117
Rush Attempts
26
33
Yards / Rush
6.1
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
61%
3rd Down Conversions
4
11
3rd Down Attempts
8
18
Red Zone %
80%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.54
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-2
Sack EPA
--
-1.94
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
14
33
Penalty EPA
-4.61
-5.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+9
Home nfelo
1,623
Away nfelo
1,635
Home Field
-7.5
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.5
Net QB Adjustment
+27.2
Home QB Adjustment
+33.8
Away QB Adjustment
+6.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.5
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+33.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
7
Yards / Game
1
1
Passing Yards / Game
12
3
Rushing Yards / Game
20
16
EPA
EPA / Play
1
5
EPA / Pass
1
1
EPA / Rush
6
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
15
Interceptions / Game
7
9
Fumbles / Game
6
6
Turnover EPA / Game
27
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
12
4th Down Efficiency
2
19
RZ Efficiency
2
17
Eagles Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
18
Yards / Game
3
14
Passing Yards / Game
6
28
Rushing Yards / Game
4
8
EPA
EPA / Play
2
27
EPA / Pass
6
15
EPA / Rush
1
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
30
Interceptions / Game
3
21
Fumbles / Game
17
2
Turnover EPA / Game
14
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
22
4th Down Efficiency
4
24
RZ Efficiency
3
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
9-1
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Eagles
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U