nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ falcons week 3, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

KC logo
KCChiefs
2-0
22
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
17
ATLFalcons
1-1
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
13
9
0
22
Falcons
7
7
0
3
17

Spread

KC logo
-3

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
345
311
Total Plays
72
56
Yards / Play
4.8
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.01
Passing Yards
--
229
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.10
Rushing Yards
128
82
Rush Attempts
33
25
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
43%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.73
-3.72
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-1
Sack EPA
--
-3.45
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
61
44
Penalty EPA
-5.66
-6.56

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-100
Home nfelo
1,471
Away nfelo
1,644
Home Field
+54.8
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
-8.4
Net QB Adjustment
+17.9
Home QB Adjustment
+16.0
Away QB Adjustment
-1.9
Market Regression
+51.6
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
Value
Ptile
12/10
0.3
51
12/17
0.1
50
12/25
-1.9
36
12/31
1.2
56
01/13
7.6
92
01/21
6.5
89
01/28
4.8
80
02/11
8.5
95
09/05
1.4
58
09/15
-2.1
34
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
Value
Ptile
09/10
4.7
79
09/14
10.0
97
09/24
3.7
74
10/01
-5.3
18
10/08
1.1
55
10/15
-2.2
34
10/23
9.3
96
10/29
4.9
81
09/08
-6.5
10
09/16
2.1
63

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Falcons Defense
Chiefs logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
12
23
Yards / Game
19
22
Passing Yards / Game
19
3
Rushing Yards / Game
26
15

EPA

EPA / Play
10
23
EPA / Pass
10
28
EPA / Rush
12
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
25
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
5
27
Turnover EPA / Game
22
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
31
4th Down Efficiency
6
13
RZ Efficiency
21
28
Falcons Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Falcons logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
14
6
Yards / Game
6
9
Passing Yards / Game
7
17
Rushing Yards / Game
10
10

EPA

EPA / Play
15
16
EPA / Pass
15
25
EPA / Rush
11
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
15
Interceptions / Game
29
17
Fumbles / Game
6
26
Turnover EPA / Game
8
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
24
4th Down Efficiency
5
9
RZ Efficiency
20
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

9-1
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-5-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
10
W
P
O
12/25
-6
L
L
U
12/31
8
W
W
U
01/07
1
W
W
U
01/13
19
W
W
U
01/21
3
W
W
O
01/28
7
W
W
U
02/11
3
W
W
P
09/05
7
W
W
P
09/15
1
W
L
O
ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
-2
L
L
O
11/26
9
W
W
U
12/03
5
W
W
U
12/10
-4
L
L
O
12/17
-2
L
L
U
12/24
19
W
W
U
12/31
-20
L
L
O
01/07
-31
L
L
O
09/08
-8
L
L
U
09/16
1
W
W
U