KCChiefs
2-0
22
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
017
ATLFalcons
1-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
13
9
0
22
Falcons
7
7
0
3
17
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
345
311
Total Plays
72
56
Yards / Play
4.8
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.01
Passing Yards
--
229
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.10
Rushing Yards
128
82
Rush Attempts
33
25
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
43%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.73
-3.72
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-1
Sack EPA
--
-3.45
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
61
44
Penalty EPA
-5.66
-6.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-103
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,648
Home Field
+54.8
Base HFA
+46.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.4
Time Adj
-8.4
Net QB Adjustment
+17.9
Home QB Adjustment
+15.9
Away QB Adjustment
-2.0
Market Regression
+51.6
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
23
Yards / Game
19
22
Passing Yards / Game
19
3
Rushing Yards / Game
26
15
EPA
EPA / Play
10
23
EPA / Pass
10
28
EPA / Rush
12
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
25
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
5
27
Turnover EPA / Game
22
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
31
4th Down Efficiency
6
13
RZ Efficiency
21
28
Falcons Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
6
Yards / Game
6
9
Passing Yards / Game
7
17
Rushing Yards / Game
10
10
EPA
EPA / Play
15
16
EPA / Pass
15
25
EPA / Rush
11
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
15
Interceptions / Game
29
17
Fumbles / Game
6
26
Turnover EPA / Game
8
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
24
4th Down Efficiency
5
9
RZ Efficiency
20
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
9-1
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-5-2
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U