KCChiefs
8-3
29
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
028
ATLFalcons
7-4
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
6
8
7
0
21
Falcons
10
6
0
12
28
Spread
+5
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
418
Total Plays
48
68
Yards / Play
8.1
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.09
Passing Yards
266
290
Comp/Att
21/25(84%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
10.6
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.42
-0.15
Rushing Yards
123
128
Rush Attempts
22
30
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.26
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
32
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
6
3rd Down %
30%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.19
-7.67
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-4
-7
Sack EPA
-5.19
-3.54
Penalties
13
5
Penalty Yards
128
30
Penalty EPA
-14.97
-3.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model65.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+74
Home nfelo
1,555
Away nfelo
1,590
Home Field
+87.3
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+21.8
Home QB Adjustment
+18.9
Away QB Adjustment
-2.9
Market Regression
+25.0
Final Difference
113.7
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.9
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+18.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
27
Yards / Game
21
27
Passing Yards / Game
21
31
Rushing Yards / Game
19
17
EPA
EPA / Play
12
24
EPA / Pass
16
22
EPA / Rush
12
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
11
Interceptions / Game
8
17
Fumbles / Game
23
15
Turnover EPA / Game
22
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
25
4th Down Efficiency
4
29
RZ Efficiency
28
32
Falcons Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
6
Yards / Game
2
23
Passing Yards / Game
2
17
Rushing Yards / Game
5
27
EPA
EPA / Play
1
9
EPA / Pass
1
7
EPA / Rush
4
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
23
Interceptions / Game
3
3
Fumbles / Game
4
1
Turnover EPA / Game
32
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
28
4th Down Efficiency
9
15
RZ Efficiency
9
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Falcons
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U