KCChiefs
6-3
9
TBD
MetLife Stadium
50°F
23 mph
12
NYGGiants
1-8
TBD
MetLife Stadium
50°F
23 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chiefs
0
3
0
6
0
9
Giants
0
6
0
3
3
12
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
363
317
Total Plays
71
68
Yards / Play
5.1
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.13
Passing Yards
229
--
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
19/36(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.32
-0.11
Rushing Yards
134
112
Rush Attempts
29
32
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
27%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-12.23
-4.05
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-1
--
Sack EPA
-1.41
--
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
87
48
Penalty EPA
-8.34
-5.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
Giants+10.0
Expected Value
+11.8%
Cover Probability
55.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-171
Home nfelo
1,395
Away nfelo
1,587
Home Field
+42.0
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-43.5
Surface Adj
+19.5
Time Adj
+10.0
Net QB Adjustment
-20.6
Home QB Adjustment
+0.2
Away QB Adjustment
+20.8
Market Regression
+19.6
Final Difference
-208.0
Model Spread
+8.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.8
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
27
Yards / Game
6
31
Passing Yards / Game
3
7
Rushing Yards / Game
10
26
EPA
EPA / Play
3
18
EPA / Pass
5
21
EPA / Rush
5
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
19
Interceptions / Game
3
15
Fumbles / Game
5
23
Turnover EPA / Game
32
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
21
4th Down Efficiency
29
4
RZ Efficiency
29
18
Giants Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
15
Yards / Game
22
29
Passing Yards / Game
32
2
Rushing Yards / Game
26
28
EPA
EPA / Play
32
24
EPA / Pass
27
19
EPA / Rush
27
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
17
Interceptions / Game
20
9
Fumbles / Game
13
21
Turnover EPA / Game
16
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
26
4th Down Efficiency
25
20
RZ Efficiency
24
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Giants
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U