KCChiefs
1-6
21
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
75°F
12 mph
24
JAXJaguars
3-4
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
75°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
3
0
15
21
Jaguars
7
7
3
7
24
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
303
426
Total Plays
57
69
Yards / Play
5.3
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.04
Passing Yards
243
253
Comp/Att
23/40(57%)
18/27(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.22
Rushing Yards
60
173
Rush Attempts
14
41
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.29
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
21
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
31%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.29
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-21
-11
Sack EPA
-4.20
-2.71
Penalties
1
5
Penalty Yards
--
31
Penalty EPA
--
-3.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model71.7%
Spread Pick
Chiefs+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+125
Home nfelo
1,427
Away nfelo
1,312
Home Field
+25.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-14.8
Home QB Adjustment
-7.4
Away QB Adjustment
+7.4
Market Regression
+6.0
Final Difference
161.6
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
24
Yards / Game
25
22
Passing Yards / Game
20
1
Rushing Yards / Game
12
18
EPA
EPA / Play
26
32
EPA / Pass
26
32
EPA / Rush
26
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
7
Interceptions / Game
18
16
Fumbles / Game
13
20
Turnover EPA / Game
18
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
31
4th Down Efficiency
17
31
RZ Efficiency
23
24
Jaguars Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
29
Yards / Game
18
30
Passing Yards / Game
13
8
Rushing Yards / Game
9
30
EPA
EPA / Play
16
25
EPA / Pass
20
18
EPA / Rush
1
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
5
Interceptions / Game
4
16
Fumbles / Game
22
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
14
4th Down Efficiency
10
24
RZ Efficiency
18
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-2-5
O/U
Jaguars
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-3-3
O/U