KCChiefs
0-1
3
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
048
DETLions
1-0
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
0
0
0
3
Lions
7
13
7
21
48
Spread
-8
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
267
411
Total Plays
54
70
Yards / Play
4.9
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.54
+0.25
Passing Yards
116
--
Comp/Att
15/23(65%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.89
+0.45
Rushing Yards
151
89
Rush Attempts
29
30
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
23
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
18%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
0%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-23.57
-0.41
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-5.96
--
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
70
35
Penalty EPA
-9.30
-3.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+169
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+7.6
Home QB Adjustment
+1.5
Away QB Adjustment
-6.1
Market Regression
-10.6
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
24
Yards / Game
27
28
Passing Yards / Game
28
31
Rushing Yards / Game
15
25
EPA
EPA / Play
29
13
EPA / Pass
21
6
EPA / Rush
31
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
17
Interceptions / Game
23
8
Fumbles / Game
6
3
Turnover EPA / Game
14
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
7
4th Down Efficiency
15
20
RZ Efficiency
32
14
Lions Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
13
Yards / Game
4
11
Passing Yards / Game
5
2
Rushing Yards / Game
30
26
EPA
EPA / Play
9
21
EPA / Pass
7
22
EPA / Rush
14
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
20
Interceptions / Game
20
5
Fumbles / Game
9
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
5
4th Down Efficiency
6
18
RZ Efficiency
3
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-3-1
O/U