KCChiefs
1-1
28
TBD
Lambeau Field
67°F
5 mph
38
GBPackers
2-0
TBD
Lambeau Field
67°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
7
7
14
28
Packers
14
10
7
7
38
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
328
448
Total Plays
67
68
Yards / Play
4.9
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.24
Passing Yards
253
325
Comp/Att
24/42(57%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
9.3
EPA / Pass
-0.00
+0.46
Rushing Yards
75
123
Rush Attempts
18
32
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
26
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
5
3rd Down %
20%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.85
--
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-39
-8
Sack EPA
-9.94
-1.28
Penalties
7
12
Penalty Yards
38
89
Penalty EPA
-4.30
-11.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+128
Home nfelo
1,601
Away nfelo
1,558
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+22.6
Home QB Adjustment
+19.0
Away QB Adjustment
-3.6
Market Regression
-24.6
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+19.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
11
Yards / Game
25
17
Passing Yards / Game
19
8
Rushing Yards / Game
6
19
EPA
EPA / Play
5
13
EPA / Pass
15
7
EPA / Rush
1
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
10
Interceptions / Game
1
8
Fumbles / Game
7
28
Turnover EPA / Game
30
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
8
4th Down Efficiency
2
14
RZ Efficiency
12
13
Packers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
1
Yards / Game
22
6
Passing Yards / Game
16
7
Rushing Yards / Game
9
6
EPA
EPA / Play
10
5
EPA / Pass
18
3
EPA / Rush
8
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
8
Interceptions / Game
2
2
Fumbles / Game
10
23
Turnover EPA / Game
26
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
5
4th Down Efficiency
10
15
RZ Efficiency
16
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U