KCChiefs
9-1
30
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
61°F
5 mph
27
CARPanthers
3-7
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
61°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
10
10
7
3
30
Panthers
3
6
7
11
27
Spread
+11
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
391
336
Total Plays
68
59
Yards / Play
5.8
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.32
+0.19
Passing Yards
226
249
Comp/Att
27/37(73%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.18
Rushing Yards
165
87
Rush Attempts
26
22
Yards / Rush
6.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.39
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
21
Passing 1st downs
15
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
62%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
40%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-43
-14
Sack EPA
-5.56
-3.40
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
91
53
Penalty EPA
-9.44
-11.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market82.5%
Model83.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-306
Home nfelo
1,292
Away nfelo
1,657
Home Field
+60.0
Base HFA
+41.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
-1.5
Home QB Adjustment
-14.4
Away QB Adjustment
-12.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-276.9
Model Spread
+11.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-12.9
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-14.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
32
Yards / Game
19
32
Passing Yards / Game
19
21
Rushing Yards / Game
26
32
EPA
EPA / Play
10
32
EPA / Pass
10
31
EPA / Rush
12
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
21
Interceptions / Game
14
25
Fumbles / Game
5
19
Turnover EPA / Game
22
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
32
4th Down Efficiency
6
20
RZ Efficiency
21
29
Panthers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
6
Yards / Game
29
9
Passing Yards / Game
30
17
Rushing Yards / Game
16
10
EPA
EPA / Play
24
16
EPA / Pass
28
25
EPA / Rush
9
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
15
Interceptions / Game
22
17
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
13
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
24
4th Down Efficiency
26
9
RZ Efficiency
7
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
9-1
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Panthers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U