KCChiefs
-
42
TBD
Gillette Stadium
63°F
8 mph
27
NEPatriots
-
TBD
Gillette Stadium
63°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
7
7
21
42
Patriots
7
10
10
0
27
Spread
+8
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
537
371
Total Plays
65
74
Yards / Play
8.3
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.01
Passing Yards
352
247
Comp/Att
28/35(80%)
16/36(44%)
Yards / Pass
10.1
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.50
+0.05
Rushing Yards
185
124
Rush Attempts
27
35
Yards / Rush
6.9
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
25
Passing 1st downs
17
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.80
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-16
-20
Sack EPA
-5.17
-3.22
Penalties
15
6
Penalty Yards
139
55
Penalty EPA
-12.00
-6.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+188
Home nfelo
1,661
Away nfelo
1,556
Home Field
+67.1
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+16.4
Home QB Adjustment
+20.0
Away QB Adjustment
+3.6
Market Regression
+12.1
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.6
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
7
Yards / Game
6
30
Passing Yards / Game
3
28
Rushing Yards / Game
10
20
EPA
EPA / Play
3
26
EPA / Pass
5
24
EPA / Rush
5
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
21
Interceptions / Game
3
22
Fumbles / Game
5
30
Turnover EPA / Game
32
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
22
4th Down Efficiency
29
17
RZ Efficiency
29
7
Patriots Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
15
Yards / Game
1
29
Passing Yards / Game
2
2
Rushing Yards / Game
15
28
EPA
EPA / Play
1
24
EPA / Pass
1
19
EPA / Rush
8
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
17
Interceptions / Game
2
9
Fumbles / Game
6
21
Turnover EPA / Game
31
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
26
4th Down Efficiency
4
20
RZ Efficiency
3
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
10-0
SU
9-1
ATS
5-5
O/U