KCChiefs
5-0
40
TBD
Gillette Stadium
45°F
043
NEPatriots
3-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
45°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
6
3
17
14
40
Patriots
10
14
3
16
43
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
59.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
446
500
Total Plays
53
75
Yards / Play
8.4
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.37
+0.26
Passing Yards
--
327
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.3
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.06
Rushing Yards
94
173
Rush Attempts
17
38
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
31
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
15
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
40%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
40%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-10.24
-4.77
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-6.03
Penalties
5
--
Penalty Yards
58
--
Penalty EPA
-6.12
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+103
Home nfelo
1,625
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+66.6
Base HFA
+56.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.7
Home QB Adjustment
+6.3
Away QB Adjustment
+14.0
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
6
Yards / Game
1
15
Passing Yards / Game
7
9
Rushing Yards / Game
15
7
EPA
EPA / Play
1
7
EPA / Pass
1
5
EPA / Rush
1
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
32
Interceptions / Game
10
5
Fumbles / Game
12
14
Turnover EPA / Game
29
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
15
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
1
24
Patriots Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
24
Yards / Game
4
31
Passing Yards / Game
25
30
Rushing Yards / Game
5
27
EPA
EPA / Play
4
25
EPA / Pass
7
16
EPA / Rush
6
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
28
Interceptions / Game
12
9
Fumbles / Game
8
7
Turnover EPA / Game
27
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
26
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
10
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
9-1
SU
9-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U