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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ patriots week 6, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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KC logo
KCChiefs
5-0
40
TBD
Gillette Stadium
45°F
0
43
NEPatriots
3-2
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
45°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
6
3
17
14
40
Patriots
10
14
3
16
43

Spread

KC logo
+4

Total

OVER
59.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
446
500
Total Plays
53
75
Yards / Play
8.4
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.37
+0.26
Passing Yards
--
327
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.3
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.06
Rushing Yards
94
173
Rush Attempts
17
38
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
18
31
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
15
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
40%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
40%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
6
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-10.24
-4.77
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-6.03
Penalties
5
--
Penalty Yards
58
--
Penalty EPA
-6.12
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+104
Home nfelo
1,621
Away nfelo
1,577
Home Field
+67.4
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-7.7
Home QB Adjustment
+6.3
Away QB Adjustment
+14.0
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
Value
Ptile
12/31
-1.8
39
09/09
6.6
88
09/16
14.8
99
09/23
4.4
76
10/01
5.1
80
10/07
0.5
50
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
Value
Ptile
12/24
1.6
65
12/31
-2.8
34
01/13
9.1
96
01/21
3.3
77
02/04
11.3
99
09/09
2.4
66
09/16
3.4
72
09/23
-5.8
14
09/30
3.0
70
10/04
8.8
94

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Patriots Defense
Chiefs logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
1
6
Yards / Game
1
15
Passing Yards / Game
7
9
Rushing Yards / Game
15
7

EPA

EPA / Play
1
7
EPA / Pass
1
5
EPA / Rush
1
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
32
Interceptions / Game
10
5
Fumbles / Game
12
14
Turnover EPA / Game
29
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
15
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
1
24
Patriots Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Patriots logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
4
24
Yards / Game
4
31
Passing Yards / Game
25
30
Rushing Yards / Game
5
27

EPA

EPA / Play
4
25
EPA / Pass
7
16
EPA / Rush
6
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
28
Interceptions / Game
12
9
Fumbles / Game
8
7
Turnover EPA / Game
27
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
26
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
10
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

9-1
SU
9-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
11
W
W
U
12/16
17
W
W
U
12/24
16
W
W
U
12/31
3
W
W
O
01/06
-1
L
L
U
09/09
10
W
W
O
09/16
5
W
W
O
09/23
11
W
W
O
10/01
4
W
W
U
10/07
16
W
W
U
NE logo

Patriots

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
21
W
W
O
12/31
20
W
W
U
01/13
21
W
W
O
01/21
4
W
L
U
02/04
-8
L
L
O
09/09
7
W
W
U
09/16
-11
L
L
O
09/23
-16
L
L
U
09/30
31
W
W
U
10/04
14
W
W
O