KCChiefs
2-2
26
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
61°F
6 mph
10
OAKRaiders
4-1
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
61°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
6
10
3
26
Raiders
7
3
0
0
10
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
406
285
Total Plays
64
53
Yards / Play
6.3
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.26
Passing Yards
223
221
Comp/Att
19/23(83%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
9.7
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.24
Rushing Yards
183
64
Rush Attempts
40
17
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
54%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.78
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-1
-4
Sack EPA
-1.18
-7.18
Penalties
2
3
Penalty Yards
10
--
Penalty EPA
-1.13
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-53
Home nfelo
1,511
Away nfelo
1,570
Home Field
-13.1
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.5
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.3
Home QB Adjustment
+19.2
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
-16.2
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
20
Yards / Game
21
24
Passing Yards / Game
21
19
Rushing Yards / Game
19
23
EPA
EPA / Play
12
14
EPA / Pass
16
21
EPA / Rush
12
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
31
Interceptions / Game
8
11
Fumbles / Game
23
7
Turnover EPA / Game
22
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
13
4th Down Efficiency
4
3
RZ Efficiency
28
26
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
6
Yards / Game
10
23
Passing Yards / Game
26
17
Rushing Yards / Game
6
27
EPA
EPA / Play
15
9
EPA / Pass
17
7
EPA / Rush
17
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
23
Interceptions / Game
9
3
Fumbles / Game
15
1
Turnover EPA / Game
26
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
13
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Raiders
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U