KCChiefs
5-1
30
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
62°F
1 mph
31
OAKRaiders
2-4
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
62°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
10
10
10
0
30
Raiders
14
0
7
10
31
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
425
505
Total Plays
60
73
Yards / Play
7.1
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.36
+0.24
Passing Yards
331
--
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
29/52(56%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.61
+0.39
Rushing Yards
94
88
Rush Attempts
23
21
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
32
Passing 1st downs
15
23
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
53%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-1.94
--
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
94
97
Penalty EPA
-10.41
-7.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-56
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,585
Home Field
+51.7
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
-25.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.4
Net QB Adjustment
-20.7
Home QB Adjustment
-0.0
Away QB Adjustment
+20.6
Market Regression
-68.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.6
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
20
Yards / Game
6
24
Passing Yards / Game
3
23
Rushing Yards / Game
10
11
EPA
EPA / Play
3
31
EPA / Pass
5
31
EPA / Rush
5
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
3
32
Fumbles / Game
5
18
Turnover EPA / Game
32
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
25
4th Down Efficiency
29
30
RZ Efficiency
29
8
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
15
Yards / Game
18
29
Passing Yards / Game
30
2
Rushing Yards / Game
25
28
EPA
EPA / Play
15
24
EPA / Pass
16
19
EPA / Rush
22
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
17
Interceptions / Game
20
9
Fumbles / Game
31
21
Turnover EPA / Game
13
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
26
4th Down Efficiency
27
20
RZ Efficiency
8
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U