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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ raiders week 7, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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KC logo
KCChiefs
5-1
30
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
62°F
1 mph
31
OAKRaiders
2-4
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
62°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
10
10
10
0
30
Raiders
14
0
7
10
31

Spread

OAK logo
+3

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
425
505
Total Plays
60
73
Yards / Play
7.1
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.36
+0.24
Passing Yards
331
--
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
29/52(56%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.61
+0.39
Rushing Yards
94
88
Rush Attempts
23
21
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
19
32
Passing 1st downs
15
23
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
53%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-1.94
--
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
94
97
Penalty EPA
-10.41
-7.78

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-51
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,582
Home Field
+52.4
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.7
Net QB Adjustment
-20.7
Home QB Adjustment
-0.0
Away QB Adjustment
+20.6
Market Regression
-70.5
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.6
Value
Ptile
12/18
-3.9
20
12/25
8.6
94
01/01
6.3
87
01/15
-2.4
31
09/07
9.7
97
09/17
1.1
60
09/24
-2.2
37
10/02
7.1
91
10/08
10.4
98
10/15
-0.4
49
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
Value
Ptile
11/27
2.1
65
12/04
2.8
71
12/08
-8.2
4
12/18
-2.8
28
12/24
5.1
83
09/10
2.9
73
09/17
7.3
91
09/24
-9.3
4
10/01
-2.7
34
10/15
-3.2
30

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
7
20
Yards / Game
6
24
Passing Yards / Game
3
23
Rushing Yards / Game
10
11

EPA

EPA / Play
3
31
EPA / Pass
5
31
EPA / Rush
5
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
3
32
Fumbles / Game
5
18
Turnover EPA / Game
32
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
25
4th Down Efficiency
29
30
RZ Efficiency
29
8
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
22
15
Yards / Game
18
29
Passing Yards / Game
30
2
Rushing Yards / Game
25
28

EPA

EPA / Play
15
24
EPA / Pass
16
19
EPA / Rush
22
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
17
Interceptions / Game
20
9
Fumbles / Game
31
21
Turnover EPA / Game
13
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
26
4th Down Efficiency
27
20
RZ Efficiency
8
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
-2
L
L
U
12/25
23
W
W
O
01/01
10
W
W
O
01/15
-2
L
L
U
09/07
15
W
W
O
09/17
7
W
W
O
09/24
14
W
W
U
10/02
9
W
W
O
10/08
8
W
W
O
10/15
-6
L
L
U
OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
3
W
W
U
12/24
8
W
W
O
01/01
-18
L
L
U
01/07
-13
L
L
O
09/10
10
W
W
U
09/17
25
W
W
O
09/24
-17
L
L
U
10/01
-6
L
L
U
10/08
-13
L
L
O
10/15
-1
L
L
U