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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ raiders week 8, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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KC logo
KCChiefs
6-0
27
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
20
OAKRaiders
2-5
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
10
0
10
27
Raiders
7
3
3
7
20

Spread

OAK logo
+8.5

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
334
228
Total Plays
68
56
Yards / Play
4.9
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.06
Passing Yards
252
195
Comp/Att
27/38(71%)
24/30(80%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.20
Rushing Yards
82
33
Rush Attempts
29
21
Yards / Rush
2.8
1.6
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.47
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
23
15
Passing 1st downs
17
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
75%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
12
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.04
-5.47
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-10
-14
Sack EPA
-2.70
-11.88
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
55
32
Penalty EPA
-8.40
-3.94

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market77.4%
Model77.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-211
Home nfelo
1,432
Away nfelo
1,682
Home Field
+32.0
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
-19.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
+7.9
Home QB Adjustment
-7.9
Away QB Adjustment
-15.8
Market Regression
+17.4
Final Difference
-213.9
Model Spread
+8.5

Quarterbacks

P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
-15.8
Value
Ptile
01/13
7.6
92
01/21
6.5
89
01/28
4.8
80
02/11
8.5
95
09/05
1.4
58
09/15
-2.1
34
09/22
1.4
58
09/29
-2.8
29
10/07
2.1
64
10/20
-3.1
27
G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-7.9
Value
Ptile
12/10
-1.9
36
12/16
1.8
61
12/24
-9.3
4
12/31
0.1
50
01/06
-4.0
24
09/08
-2.0
34
09/15
-0.2
48
09/22
-2.1
34
09/29
-4.8
17
10/06
-4.5
20

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
12
25
Yards / Game
19
12
Passing Yards / Game
19
27
Rushing Yards / Game
26
12

EPA

EPA / Play
10
12
EPA / Pass
10
26
EPA / Rush
12
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
9
Interceptions / Game
14
22
Fumbles / Game
5
31
Turnover EPA / Game
22
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
17
4th Down Efficiency
6
31
RZ Efficiency
21
22
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
29
6
Yards / Game
27
9
Passing Yards / Game
9
17
Rushing Yards / Game
32
10

EPA

EPA / Play
31
16
EPA / Pass
24
25
EPA / Rush
32
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
15
Interceptions / Game
26
17
Fumbles / Game
29
26
Turnover EPA / Game
3
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
24
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
26
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
2-6-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/13
19
W
W
U
01/21
3
W
W
O
01/28
7
W
W
U
02/11
3
W
W
P
09/05
7
W
W
P
09/15
1
W
L
O
09/22
5
W
W
U
09/29
7
W
L
U
10/07
13
W
W
U
10/20
10
W
W
U
OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/25
6
W
W
U
12/31
-3
L
W
O
01/07
13
W
W
O
09/08
-12
L
L
U
09/15
3
W
W
O
09/22
-14
L
L
O
09/29
4
W
W
U
10/06
-16
L
L
O
10/13
-19
L
L
O
10/20
-5
L
W
U