KCChiefs
6-0
27
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
020
OAKRaiders
2-5
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
10
0
10
27
Raiders
7
3
3
7
20
Spread
+8.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
334
228
Total Plays
68
56
Yards / Play
4.9
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.06
Passing Yards
252
195
Comp/Att
27/38(71%)
24/30(80%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.20
Rushing Yards
82
33
Rush Attempts
29
21
Yards / Rush
2.8
1.6
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.47
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
15
Passing 1st downs
17
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
75%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
12
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.04
-5.47
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-10
-14
Sack EPA
-2.70
-11.88
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
55
32
Penalty EPA
-8.40
-3.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market77.4%
Model77.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-211
Home nfelo
1,432
Away nfelo
1,682
Home Field
+32.0
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
-19.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
+7.9
Home QB Adjustment
-7.9
Away QB Adjustment
-15.8
Market Regression
+17.4
Final Difference
-213.9
Model Spread
+8.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-15.8
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-7.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
25
Yards / Game
19
12
Passing Yards / Game
19
27
Rushing Yards / Game
26
12
EPA
EPA / Play
10
12
EPA / Pass
10
26
EPA / Rush
12
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
9
Interceptions / Game
14
22
Fumbles / Game
5
31
Turnover EPA / Game
22
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
17
4th Down Efficiency
6
31
RZ Efficiency
21
22
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
6
Yards / Game
27
9
Passing Yards / Game
9
17
Rushing Yards / Game
32
10
EPA
EPA / Play
31
16
EPA / Pass
24
25
EPA / Rush
32
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
15
Interceptions / Game
26
17
Fumbles / Game
29
26
Turnover EPA / Game
3
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
24
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
26
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
2-6-2
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U