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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ raiders week 9, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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KC logo
KCChiefs
5-2
20
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
62°F
9 mph
23
OAKRaiders
4-4
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
62°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chiefs
0
10
3
7
0
20
Raiders
0
0
14
6
3
23

Spread

OAK logo
+1

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
304
321
Total Plays
72
64
Yards / Play
4.2
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.14
Passing Yards
200
209
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
19/34(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.15
Rushing Yards
104
112
Rush Attempts
34
26
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
6
1
3rd Down %
20%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-1.06
-6.31
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-16
-20
Sack EPA
-3.93
-5.36
Penalties
12
15
Penalty Yards
100
140
Penalty EPA
-10.50
-5.87

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-32
Home nfelo
1,405
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.0
Home QB Adjustment
+12.2
Away QB Adjustment
+8.2
Market Regression
-9.4
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
Value
Ptile
12/20
5.1
83
12/27
-1.6
40
01/03
-1.4
40
09/13
-4.2
22
09/19
-5.7
14
09/26
4.6
80
10/10
-3.2
27
10/17
4.5
79
10/24
1.9
60
10/31
-2.9
30
J. Campbell headshot

J. Campbell

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
Value
Ptile
12/06
11.2
98
12/13
1.5
59
12/21
-6.4
13
12/27
-4.6
21
01/03
6.1
86
09/12
-3.2
28
09/19
-6.5
11
10/17
-10.3
3
10/24
2.4
64
10/31
3.7
74

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
18
20
Yards / Game
16
11
Passing Yards / Game
31
9
Rushing Yards / Game
1
29

EPA

EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
13
11
EPA / Rush
7
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
6
Interceptions / Game
4
26
Fumbles / Game
15
22
Turnover EPA / Game
31
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
2
RZ Efficiency
7
17
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
5
14
Yards / Game
10
16
Passing Yards / Game
18
22
Rushing Yards / Game
2
16

EPA

EPA / Play
11
18
EPA / Pass
22
17
EPA / Rush
5
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
20
Interceptions / Game
16
22
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
18
4th Down Efficiency
22
6
RZ Efficiency
18
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
-7
L
L
O
12/27
-7
L
W
U
01/03
20
W
W
O
09/13
7
W
W
U
09/19
2
W
W
U
09/26
21
W
W
O
10/10
-10
L
L
U
10/17
-4
L
W
O
10/24
22
W
W
O
10/31
3
W
L
U
OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
-14
L
L
U
01/03
-8
L
W
U
09/12
-25
L
L
O
09/19
2
W
L
U
09/26
-1
L
W
O
10/03
-7
L
L
O
10/10
8
W
W
O
10/17
-8
L
W
U
10/24
45
W
W
O
10/31
30
W
W
U