KCChiefs
5-2
20
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
62°F
9 mph
23
OAKRaiders
4-4
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
62°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chiefs
0
10
3
7
0
20
Raiders
0
0
14
6
3
23
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
304
321
Total Plays
72
64
Yards / Play
4.2
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.14
Passing Yards
200
209
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
19/34(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.15
Rushing Yards
104
112
Rush Attempts
34
26
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
6
1
3rd Down %
20%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-1.06
-6.31
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-16
-20
Sack EPA
-3.93
-5.36
Penalties
12
15
Penalty Yards
100
140
Penalty EPA
-10.50
-5.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-34
Home nfelo
1,404
Away nfelo
1,477
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.0
Home QB Adjustment
+12.2
Away QB Adjustment
+8.2
Market Regression
-9.0
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
20
Yards / Game
16
11
Passing Yards / Game
31
9
Rushing Yards / Game
1
29
EPA
EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
13
11
EPA / Rush
7
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
6
Interceptions / Game
4
26
Fumbles / Game
15
22
Turnover EPA / Game
31
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
2
RZ Efficiency
7
17
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
14
Yards / Game
10
16
Passing Yards / Game
18
22
Rushing Yards / Game
2
16
EPA
EPA / Play
11
18
EPA / Pass
22
17
EPA / Rush
5
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
20
Interceptions / Game
16
22
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
18
4th Down Efficiency
22
6
RZ Efficiency
18
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U