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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ raiders week 10, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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KC logo
KCChiefs
1-7
16
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
60°F
5 mph
10
OAKRaiders
2-6
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
60°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
10
0
3
16
Raiders
10
0
0
0
10

Spread

KC logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
318
272
Total Plays
67
64
Yards / Play
4.7
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.23
Passing Yards
206
90
Comp/Att
19/34(56%)
13/32(41%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
2.8
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.72
Rushing Yards
112
182
Rush Attempts
31
30
Yards / Rush
3.6
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
14
11
Passing 1st downs
7
4
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
7%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
1
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.03
-1.77
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-10
-23
Sack EPA
-2.16
-3.02
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
35
88
Penalty EPA
+0.51
-11.30

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+27
Home nfelo
1,335
Away nfelo
1,317
Home Field
+52.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-44.2
Home QB Adjustment
-34.1
Away QB Adjustment
+10.1
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
Value
Ptile
12/14
3.0
71
12/21
7.4
92
12/28
-2.6
30
09/20
-0.1
48
09/27
-0.4
47
10/04
-3.5
27
10/11
1.6
60
10/18
-5.6
16
10/25
-13.5
1
11/08
0.4
53
J. Russell headshot

J. Russell

Proj. Value
-5.2
Team Elo Adj
-34.1
Value
Ptile
12/21
4.4
80
12/28
0.7
56
09/14
-5.9
15
09/20
-9.3
4
09/27
-8.8
5
10/04
-9.0
4
10/11
-7.4
9
10/18
-2.1
37
10/25
-8.0
8
11/01
-8.7
6

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
23
23
Yards / Game
25
25
Passing Yards / Game
20
15
Rushing Yards / Game
12
29

EPA

EPA / Play
26
26
EPA / Pass
26
27
EPA / Rush
26
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
3
Interceptions / Game
18
31
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
18
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
7
4th Down Efficiency
17
28
RZ Efficiency
23
10
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
31
29
Yards / Game
31
30
Passing Yards / Game
26
8
Rushing Yards / Game
21
30

EPA

EPA / Play
29
25
EPA / Pass
30
18
EPA / Rush
22
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
5
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
32
7
Turnover EPA / Game
11
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
14
4th Down Efficiency
18
24
RZ Efficiency
29
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-2-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
-7
L
L
P
12/28
-10
L
L
P
09/13
-14
L
L
O
09/20
-3
L
L
U
09/27
-20
L
L
O
10/04
-11
L
L
P
10/11
-6
L
W
O
10/18
8
W
W
U
10/25
-30
L
L
P
11/08
-3
L
W
O
OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
3-5-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
11
W
W
P
12/28
7
W
W
P
09/14
-4
L
W
O
09/20
3
W
W
U
09/27
-20
L
L
U
10/04
-23
L
L
U
10/11
-37
L
L
O
10/18
4
W
W
U
10/25
-38
L
L
O
11/01
-8
L
W
U