KCChiefs
1-7
16
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
60°F
5 mph
10
OAKRaiders
2-6
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
60°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
10
0
3
16
Raiders
10
0
0
0
10
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
318
272
Total Plays
67
64
Yards / Play
4.7
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.23
Passing Yards
206
90
Comp/Att
19/34(56%)
13/32(41%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
2.8
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.72
Rushing Yards
112
182
Rush Attempts
31
30
Yards / Rush
3.6
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
11
Passing 1st downs
7
4
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
7%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
1
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.03
-1.77
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-10
-23
Sack EPA
-2.16
-3.02
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
35
88
Penalty EPA
+0.51
-11.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+27
Home nfelo
1,336
Away nfelo
1,317
Home Field
+52.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-44.2
Home QB Adjustment
-34.1
Away QB Adjustment
+10.1
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
J. Russell
Proj. Value
-5.2
Team Elo Adj
-34.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
23
Yards / Game
25
25
Passing Yards / Game
20
15
Rushing Yards / Game
12
29
EPA
EPA / Play
26
26
EPA / Pass
26
27
EPA / Rush
26
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
3
Interceptions / Game
18
31
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
18
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
7
4th Down Efficiency
17
28
RZ Efficiency
23
10
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
29
Yards / Game
31
30
Passing Yards / Game
26
8
Rushing Yards / Game
21
30
EPA
EPA / Play
29
25
EPA / Pass
30
18
EPA / Rush
22
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
5
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
32
7
Turnover EPA / Game
11
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
14
4th Down Efficiency
18
24
RZ Efficiency
29
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-2-4
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
3-5-2
O/U