KCChiefs
7-3
20
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
57°F
6 mph
24
OAKRaiders
0-10
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
57°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
3
7
10
20
Raiders
7
7
3
7
24
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
313
351
Total Plays
62
66
Yards / Play
5.0
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.06
Passing Yards
217
172
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
18/35(51%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.02
Rushing Yards
96
179
Rush Attempts
24
30
Yards / Rush
4.0
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
14%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+4.56
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-17
-2
Sack EPA
-3.29
-0.93
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
59
60
Penalty EPA
-6.06
-6.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-140
Home nfelo
1,380
Away nfelo
1,576
Home Field
+56.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+0.4
Home QB Adjustment
-3.5
Away QB Adjustment
-3.9
Market Regression
-29.0
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.9
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
32
Yards / Game
25
20
Passing Yards / Game
24
10
Rushing Yards / Game
11
22
EPA
EPA / Play
9
25
EPA / Pass
12
27
EPA / Rush
4
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
26
Interceptions / Game
1
27
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
32
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
14
4th Down Efficiency
21
13
RZ Efficiency
9
16
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
2
Yards / Game
32
8
Passing Yards / Game
29
20
Rushing Yards / Game
32
28
EPA
EPA / Play
32
12
EPA / Pass
31
8
EPA / Rush
32
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
7
Interceptions / Game
19
30
Fumbles / Game
28
25
Turnover EPA / Game
3
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
5
4th Down Efficiency
3
8
RZ Efficiency
1
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Raiders
0-10
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U