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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ raiders week 13, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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KC logo
KCChiefs
6-5
34
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
57°F
3 mph
20
OAKRaiders
5-6
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
57°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
0
7
14
28
Raiders
7
7
6
0
20

Spread

KC logo
-3

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
234
361
Total Plays
50
76
Yards / Play
4.7
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.34
Passing Yards
145
262
Comp/Att
16/24(67%)
31/48(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.32
-0.51
Rushing Yards
89
99
Rush Attempts
22
24
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
15
27
Passing 1st downs
7
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
38%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.47
-23.60
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-19
-21
Sack EPA
-5.92
-6.41
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
88
--
Penalty EPA
-9.98
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-72
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+33.6
Base HFA
+61.3
Divisional Adj
-27.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.7
Home QB Adjustment
+29.5
Away QB Adjustment
+13.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.8
Value
Ptile
09/17
-7.2
7
09/28
-4.0
21
10/04
1.9
64
10/11
-3.4
26
10/18
1.2
59
10/25
-0.0
51
11/01
5.5
84
11/15
0.6
54
11/22
0.5
54
11/29
5.5
85
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+29.5
Value
Ptile
09/20
8.0
94
09/27
5.9
87
10/04
-2.8
31
10/11
-2.1
34
10/25
7.2
92
11/01
9.4
96
11/08
4.3
80
11/15
1.3
61
11/22
-4.3
19
11/29
6.6
89

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
9
22
Yards / Game
25
22
Passing Yards / Game
19
19
Rushing Yards / Game
6
13

EPA

EPA / Play
5
19
EPA / Pass
15
14
EPA / Rush
1
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
21
Interceptions / Game
1
15
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
30
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
11
4th Down Efficiency
2
19
RZ Efficiency
12
10
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
16
1
Yards / Game
24
6
Passing Yards / Game
26
7
Rushing Yards / Game
28
6

EPA

EPA / Play
19
5
EPA / Pass
21
3
EPA / Rush
20
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
8
Interceptions / Game
17
2
Fumbles / Game
27
23
Turnover EPA / Game
12
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
5
4th Down Efficiency
27
15
RZ Efficiency
8
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
-7
L
L
O
09/28
-10
L
L
O
10/04
-15
L
L
O
10/11
-1
L
L
U
10/18
-6
L
L
U
10/25
10
W
W
U
11/01
35
W
W
O
11/15
16
W
W
P
11/22
30
W
W
U
11/29
8
W
W
O
OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-3-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
4
W
W
O
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/04
-2
L
L
U
10/11
-6
L
L
U
10/25
8
W
W
O
11/01
14
W
W
O
11/08
-3
L
W
O
11/15
-16
L
L
P
11/22
-5
L
L
U
11/29
3
W
W
P