KCChiefs
6-5
34
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
57°F
3 mph
20
OAKRaiders
5-6
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
57°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
0
7
14
28
Raiders
7
7
6
0
20
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
234
361
Total Plays
50
76
Yards / Play
4.7
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.34
Passing Yards
145
262
Comp/Att
16/24(67%)
31/48(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.32
-0.51
Rushing Yards
89
99
Rush Attempts
22
24
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
27
Passing 1st downs
7
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
38%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.47
-23.60
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-19
-21
Sack EPA
-5.92
-6.41
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
88
--
Penalty EPA
-9.98
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-73
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,584
Home Field
+33.3
Base HFA
+60.6
Divisional Adj
-27.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.7
Home QB Adjustment
+29.5
Away QB Adjustment
+13.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.8
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+29.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
22
Yards / Game
25
22
Passing Yards / Game
19
19
Rushing Yards / Game
6
13
EPA
EPA / Play
5
19
EPA / Pass
15
14
EPA / Rush
1
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
21
Interceptions / Game
1
15
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
30
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
11
4th Down Efficiency
2
19
RZ Efficiency
12
10
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
1
Yards / Game
24
6
Passing Yards / Game
26
7
Rushing Yards / Game
28
6
EPA
EPA / Play
19
5
EPA / Pass
21
3
EPA / Rush
20
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
8
Interceptions / Game
17
2
Fumbles / Game
27
23
Turnover EPA / Game
12
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
5
4th Down Efficiency
27
15
RZ Efficiency
8
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Raiders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-3-2
O/U