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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ raiders week 15, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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KC logo
KCChiefs
2-11
0
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
54°F
2 mph
15
OAKRaiders
3-10
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
54°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
0
0
0
0
Raiders
3
6
3
3
15

Spread

OAK logo
-4.5

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
119
385
Total Plays
46
75
Yards / Play
2.6
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.46
-0.08
Passing Yards
109
--
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.65
-0.10
Rushing Yards
10
203
Rush Attempts
10
45
Yards / Rush
1.0
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.57
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
7
21
Passing 1st downs
5
9
Rushing 1st downs
--
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
8%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.43
-5.21
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-27
--
Sack EPA
-7.04
--
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
60
62
Penalty EPA
-4.54
-7.17

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model64.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+45
Home nfelo
1,342
Away nfelo
1,362
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+19.1
Home QB Adjustment
+7.0
Away QB Adjustment
-12.1
Market Regression
+86.1
Final Difference
101.4
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

B. Quinn headshot

B. Quinn

Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-12.1
Value
Ptile
11/22
7.1
90
11/29
-2.9
31
12/06
4.4
79
12/10
-5.5
17
12/20
-5.3
18
10/14
-5.1
17
10/28
-8.6
5
11/25
-6.7
10
12/02
4.4
78
12/09
-9.5
3
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
Value
Ptile
09/30
-4.5
22
10/14
2.2
63
10/21
0.9
55
10/28
-0.3
48
11/04
4.2
76
11/11
3.8
74
11/18
-3.9
25
11/25
-6.5
11
12/02
5.1
81
12/06
3.0
69

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
32
28
Yards / Game
24
17
Passing Yards / Game
31
6
Rushing Yards / Game
5
17

EPA

EPA / Play
31
32
EPA / Pass
31
30
EPA / Rush
16
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
25
Interceptions / Game
31
23
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
4
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
18
4th Down Efficiency
19
24
RZ Efficiency
32
21
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
26
25
Yards / Game
18
19
Passing Yards / Game
14
4
Rushing Yards / Game
29
27

EPA

EPA / Play
23
31
EPA / Pass
19
32
EPA / Rush
31
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
10
Interceptions / Game
18
31
Fumbles / Game
16
26
Turnover EPA / Game
15
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
17
4th Down Efficiency
31
30
RZ Efficiency
28
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
-17
L
L
O
10/07
-3
L
W
U
10/14
-28
L
L
O
10/28
-10
L
L
O
11/01
-18
L
L
O
11/12
-3
L
W
U
11/18
-22
L
L
U
11/25
-8
L
W
U
12/02
6
W
W
O
12/09
-23
L
L
U
OAK logo

Raiders

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
-31
L
L
U
10/14
-3
L
W
U
10/21
3
W
L
O
10/28
10
W
W
O
11/04
-10
L
L
O
11/11
-35
L
L
O
11/18
-21
L
L
U
11/25
-24
L
L
U
12/02
-3
L
L
U
12/06
-13
L
L
U