KCChiefs
2-11
0
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
54°F
2 mph
15
OAKRaiders
3-10
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
54°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
0
0
0
0
Raiders
3
6
3
3
15
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
119
385
Total Plays
46
75
Yards / Play
2.6
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.46
-0.08
Passing Yards
109
--
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.65
-0.10
Rushing Yards
10
203
Rush Attempts
10
45
Yards / Rush
1.0
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.57
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
7
21
Passing 1st downs
5
9
Rushing 1st downs
--
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
8%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.43
-5.21
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-27
--
Sack EPA
-7.04
--
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
60
62
Penalty EPA
-4.54
-7.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model64.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+45
Home nfelo
1,344
Away nfelo
1,363
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+19.1
Home QB Adjustment
+7.0
Away QB Adjustment
-12.1
Market Regression
+86.2
Final Difference
101.4
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
B. Quinn
Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-12.1
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
28
Yards / Game
24
17
Passing Yards / Game
31
6
Rushing Yards / Game
5
17
EPA
EPA / Play
31
32
EPA / Pass
31
30
EPA / Rush
16
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
25
Interceptions / Game
31
23
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
4
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
18
4th Down Efficiency
19
24
RZ Efficiency
32
21
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
25
Yards / Game
18
19
Passing Yards / Game
14
4
Rushing Yards / Game
29
27
EPA
EPA / Play
23
31
EPA / Pass
19
32
EPA / Rush
31
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
10
Interceptions / Game
18
31
Fumbles / Game
16
26
Turnover EPA / Game
15
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
17
4th Down Efficiency
31
30
RZ Efficiency
28
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Raiders
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U