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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ raiders week 15, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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KC logo
KCChiefs
10-3
56
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
64°F
6 mph
31
OAKRaiders
4-9
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
64°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
15
14
14
7
50
Raiders
3
14
14
0
31

Spread

KC logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
384
461
Total Plays
51
74
Yards / Play
7.5
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.43
-0.11
Passing Yards
306
--
Comp/Att
20/25(80%)
20/41(49%)
Yards / Pass
12.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.83
-0.17
Rushing Yards
78
130
Rush Attempts
24
33
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
19
26
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
6
3rd Down %
44%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
80%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
1
7
Interceptions
0
5
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.81
-36.43
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-6.44
--
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
91
90
Penalty EPA
-10.46
-16.09

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-165
Home nfelo
1,410
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-88.3
Home QB Adjustment
-66.9
Away QB Adjustment
+21.4
Market Regression
-32.1
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.4
Value
Ptile
09/29
2.2
66
10/06
-3.9
25
10/13
-7.0
11
10/20
2.0
64
10/27
0.3
52
11/03
-3.7
27
11/17
1.1
57
11/24
1.7
62
12/01
6.6
88
12/08
1.6
61
M. McGloin headshot

M. McGloin

Proj. Value
-4.5
Team Elo Adj
-66.9
Value
Ptile
11/17
1.0
57
11/24
1.2
59
11/28
-2.8
34
12/08
-0.5
47

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
3
29
Yards / Game
12
21
Passing Yards / Game
23
30
Rushing Yards / Game
10
11

EPA

EPA / Play
9
26
EPA / Pass
17
32
EPA / Rush
7
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
11
Interceptions / Game
1
31
Fumbles / Game
28
11
Turnover EPA / Game
32
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
28
4th Down Efficiency
27
6
RZ Efficiency
6
22
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
24
7
Yards / Game
23
25
Passing Yards / Game
30
6
Rushing Yards / Game
11
22

EPA

EPA / Play
24
5
EPA / Pass
24
9
EPA / Rush
16
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
19
Interceptions / Game
24
3
Fumbles / Game
27
3
Turnover EPA / Game
9
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
8
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
5
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
24
W
W
U
10/06
9
W
W
O
10/13
17
W
W
U
10/20
1
W
L
U
10/27
6
W
L
O
11/03
10
W
W
U
11/17
-10
L
L
U
11/24
-3
L
L
O
12/01
-7
L
L
O
12/08
35
W
W
O
OAK logo

Raiders

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
-10
L
L
U
10/06
10
W
W
U
10/13
-17
L
L
U
10/27
3
W
W
U
11/03
-29
L
L
O
11/10
-4
L
W
O
11/17
5
W
W
O
11/24
-4
L
L
P
11/28
-7
L
W
O
12/08
-10
L
L
O