KCChiefs
10-3
56
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
64°F
6 mph
31
OAKRaiders
4-9
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
64°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
15
14
14
7
50
Raiders
3
14
14
0
31
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
384
461
Total Plays
51
74
Yards / Play
7.5
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.43
-0.11
Passing Yards
306
--
Comp/Att
20/25(80%)
20/41(49%)
Yards / Pass
12.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.83
-0.17
Rushing Yards
78
130
Rush Attempts
24
33
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
26
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
6
3rd Down %
44%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
80%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
7
Interceptions
0
5
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.81
-36.43
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-6.44
--
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
91
90
Penalty EPA
-10.46
-16.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-169
Home nfelo
1,412
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-88.3
Home QB Adjustment
-66.9
Away QB Adjustment
+21.4
Market Regression
-26.5
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.4
M. McGloin
Proj. Value
-4.5
Team Elo Adj
-66.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
29
Yards / Game
12
21
Passing Yards / Game
23
30
Rushing Yards / Game
10
11
EPA
EPA / Play
9
26
EPA / Pass
17
32
EPA / Rush
7
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
11
Interceptions / Game
1
31
Fumbles / Game
28
11
Turnover EPA / Game
32
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
28
4th Down Efficiency
27
6
RZ Efficiency
6
22
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
7
Yards / Game
23
25
Passing Yards / Game
30
6
Rushing Yards / Game
11
22
EPA
EPA / Play
24
5
EPA / Pass
24
9
EPA / Rush
16
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
19
Interceptions / Game
24
3
Fumbles / Game
27
3
Turnover EPA / Game
9
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
8
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
5
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Raiders
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U