KCChiefs
8-5
27
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
013
LARRams
6-7
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
14
3
10
27
Rams
6
0
0
7
13
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
383
224
Total Plays
74
67
Yards / Play
5.2
3.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.26
Passing Yards
173
155
Comp/Att
15/29(52%)
21/43(49%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
3.6
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.26
Rushing Yards
210
69
Rush Attempts
42
21
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
14
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
29%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
17
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.00
-3.45
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-11
-26
Sack EPA
-3.69
-3.63
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
40
60
Penalty EPA
-0.81
-7.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+21
Home nfelo
1,421
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-27.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.5
Away QB Adjustment
+40.4
Market Regression
+65.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+40.4
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
11
Yards / Game
16
18
Passing Yards / Game
31
18
Rushing Yards / Game
1
17
EPA
EPA / Play
16
5
EPA / Pass
13
7
EPA / Rush
7
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
18
Interceptions / Game
4
19
Fumbles / Game
15
10
Turnover EPA / Game
31
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
3
4th Down Efficiency
22
19
RZ Efficiency
7
12
Rams Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
14
Yards / Game
27
16
Passing Yards / Game
16
22
Rushing Yards / Game
25
16
EPA
EPA / Play
30
18
EPA / Pass
26
17
EPA / Rush
29
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
20
Interceptions / Game
13
22
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
19
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
18
4th Down Efficiency
11
6
RZ Efficiency
31
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Rams
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U