KCChiefs
-
24
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
76°F
5 mph
38
BALRavens
-
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
76°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
1
7
10
18
Ravens
10
0
7
21
38
Spread
-13
Total
OVER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
188
501
Total Plays
44
85
Yards / Play
4.3
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.12
Passing Yards
159
303
Comp/Att
16/24(67%)
26/43(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.27
Rushing Yards
29
198
Rush Attempts
17
41
Yards / Rush
1.7
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.44
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
32
Passing 1st downs
8
20
Rushing 1st downs
1
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
20%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
2
10
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-8.18
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-4
Sack EPA
-5.88
-0.96
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
15
65
Penalty EPA
-1.68
-6.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model85.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+356
Home nfelo
1,614
Away nfelo
1,359
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+5.5
Home QB Adjustment
-7.2
Away QB Adjustment
-12.7
Market Regression
+21.5
Final Difference
311.4
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
J. Croyle
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-12.7
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
2
Yards / Game
25
2
Passing Yards / Game
20
14
Rushing Yards / Game
12
3
EPA
EPA / Play
26
4
EPA / Pass
26
3
EPA / Rush
26
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
17
Interceptions / Game
18
5
Fumbles / Game
13
11
Turnover EPA / Game
18
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
8
4th Down Efficiency
17
10
RZ Efficiency
23
7
Ravens Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
29
Yards / Game
14
30
Passing Yards / Game
19
8
Rushing Yards / Game
4
30
EPA
EPA / Play
11
25
EPA / Pass
14
18
EPA / Rush
4
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
5
Interceptions / Game
13
16
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
27
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
14
4th Down Efficiency
24
24
RZ Efficiency
15
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
1-9
SU
6-4
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
0-0-10
O/U