KCChiefs
2-0
34
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
73°F
8 mph
20
BALRavens
2-0
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
73°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
6
21
0
7
34
Ravens
3
7
3
7
20
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
517
228
Total Plays
73
53
Yards / Play
7.1
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.03
Passing Yards
--
70
Comp/Att
31/42(74%)
15/28(54%)
Yards / Pass
--
2.5
EPA / Pass
+0.75
-0.53
Rushing Yards
132
158
Rush Attempts
31
21
Yards / Rush
4.3
7.5
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.42
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
16
Passing 1st downs
22
5
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
77%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
10
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.88
-3.60
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-27
Sack EPA
--
-8.52
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
38
45
Penalty EPA
-5.42
-5.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model56.0%
Spread Pick
Chiefs+3.5
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+0
Home nfelo
1,659
Away nfelo
1,669
Home Field
+7.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+2.5
Home QB Adjustment
+13.3
Away QB Adjustment
+10.8
Market Regression
+7.8
Final Difference
42.2
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
1
Yards / Game
1
6
Passing Yards / Game
8
1
Rushing Yards / Game
16
6
EPA
EPA / Play
2
4
EPA / Pass
2
7
EPA / Rush
9
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
15
Interceptions / Game
5
27
Fumbles / Game
11
8
Turnover EPA / Game
29
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
2
4th Down Efficiency
11
10
RZ Efficiency
19
15
Ravens Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
10
Yards / Game
19
15
Passing Yards / Game
30
17
Rushing Yards / Game
1
19
EPA
EPA / Play
7
23
EPA / Pass
19
12
EPA / Rush
1
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
27
Interceptions / Game
14
6
Fumbles / Game
16
20
Turnover EPA / Game
25
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
29
RZ Efficiency
17
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
10-0
SU
8-1-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Ravens
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U